This study tested a model of career development for assistant professors in higher education which permits inferences about the relationships between scholarly characteristics acquired during the probationary period and the probability of achieving tenure. The probationary period is the time between hiring and evaluation for awarding tenure. The study used a sample of the appointment histories of 104 tenure track assistant professors in 13 departments of the University of Minnesota's Institute of Technology and College of Biological Sciences who were hired between 1972 and 1985. The information included data on teaching assignments, publications, citations (including those of coauthors), and previous employment histories. Results found that the model showed an overall prediction of 85 percent and had a highly significant goodness of fit. Citations, and not counted articles, were found to have statistically significant positive effects on promotion probability. The average number of courses taught during the probationary period and the proportion of total courses taught at the graduate level were positively correlated with promotion probability. Women were more likely to achieve tenure. (Includes appendixes containing information on data sources, 10 tables, and a 40-item bibliography). (JB)