The effectiveness of a state-mandated set of evaluation criteria to identify potential dropouts is evaluated in this study. The selection criteria, based on unsatisfactory academic performance, excluded special education and limited language proficient students. Data analysis of school records and various test scores of 55,666 students in grades 7-12 classified 20,909 at-risk students under the state-mandated criteria. Optional variables include cumulative grade point average, number of years over age, grade level, gender, ethnicity, achievement and proficiency tests, migrancy, socioeconomic status, special education, and limited English proficiency. The only optional criterion tested was socioeconomic status. Findings indicate that the state standards designed to identify students with below standard academic performances were unsuccessful in identifying imminent dropouts. Mandated criteria correctly identified 40 percent of the dropouts, while alternative criteria accurately located 73 percent. However, because a failing grade point average is a powerful discriminator for immediate dropout behavior, achievement difficulties as a possible precursor to failing grades should be studied. Symptoms of other conditions to be studied are poor academic performance, such as course failure and low grade point average, and over-age students. A model for projecting dropout rates is described. Tables and figures illustrate the findings. (LMI)