In this first of three volumes, issues related to the prediction of the potential effectiveness of a simulator training device are reviewed, and the methods used to analyze effectiveness are discussed. The Army, which uses simulator devices for performance based weapons training, has used a process linked to the Life Cycle System Management Model to design, develop, and evaluate training devices. Review of the problems associated with previously used techniques led to the development of a new model which uses both decision analysis and mathematical modeling. These issues included: (1) the appropriateness of transfer of training as a criteria for measuring device effectiveness; (2) other measures such as skill acquisition and efficiency and transfer efficiency; (3) other variables influencing device effectiveness; (4) the data to be collected; (5) the Life Cycle System Management Model; and (6) the validation of forecasts. Findings indicated that device evaluation could be viewed within the more general context of program evaluation, in which hypotheses relate program inputs and activities to logically linked outcomes. This forecasting method was recommended for the device acquisition process when opportunities to conduct research and evaluation activities are limited. (GDC)