In order to prevent cigarette smoking in young adolescents, the factors which cause it need to be better understood. A study was conducted to investigate the contribution of three psychosocial factors, suggested by previous theory and research, on smoking in a longitudinal sample of seventh graders (N=3,940) who were studied again in the eighth grade. The three psychosocial variables investigated were: (1) beliefs in positive social consequences of smoking; (2) normative smoking prevalence estimates; and (3) risk taking and rebellious tendencies. A model was developed conceptualizing the psychosocial variables leading to smoking and evaluated using LISREL, a computerized program for analyzing covariance structures using maximum likelihood estimates. Beliefs in positive social consequences and high normative expectations were found to have significant effect on smoking in seventh graders. Surprisingly, the effect for risk taking and rebellious tendencies was not found to be significant. Seventh grade smoking behavior was the only factor found to have a significant influence on eighth grade smoking. These findings suggest implications for intervention. (Six tables of data are included.) (ABB)