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ERIC Number: ED256899
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1985-Apr-25
Pages: 80
Abstractor: N/A
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: N/A
Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections: Detailed Analysis of Selected Occupations and Industries. Report to the Honorable Berkley Bedell, United States House of Representatives.
General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.
To compile its projections of future employment levels, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) combines the following five interlinked models in a six-step process: a labor force model, an econometric model of the U.S. economy, an industry activity model, an industry labor demand model, and an occupational labor demand model. The BLS was asked to perform two sets of computer simulations in order to show the relative impacts of five determinants--gross national product (GNP), demand distribution, productivity, input-output coefficients, and staffing pattern ratios--on the 1995 BLS employment projections. In the first set of simulations, one determinant at a time was assigned its 1995 projected value, while the others were held constant at their 1977 values. In the second set of simulations, BLS was asked to reverse the procedure used for the first set, to use 1982 as the benchmark year, and to make the analysis for all workers rather than solely for wage-and-salary workers. The results of these simulations suggested that labor productivity is likely to increase substantially and that changes in input-output coefficients will increase the demand for labor in the industries examined. (Attachments to this report include a detailed explanation of the BLS employment forecasting system and tables summarizing the results of the two sets of simulations.) (MN)
U.S. General Accounting Office, Document Handling and Information Services Facility, P.O. Box 6015, Gaithersburg, MD 20877 (First five free; additional copies: bound--$3.25, unbound--$1.00).
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A