Preliminary results of a three-year study of fifteen school districts indicate that fiscal strain results from both "intended" and "unintended" factors. The authors construct a model of fiscal strain that combines budget constraints with school district decision-makers' preference functions and indifference curves. Using this model and 1976 and 1980 data from one school district, they analyze the three causes of fiscal strain, including price increases, changes in educational resources and technology, and enrollment decline (which increases per-pupil costs, reduces staff-pupil ratios, and causes salary and district wealth bracket creep). The greatest factor affecting the district's fiscal strain is found to be price increases. Enrollment declines show little or no causal effect on fiscal strain, while technological changes account for an intermediate proportion of the strain. Price and enrollment changes are unintended factors contributinq to districts' fiscal strain, note the authors, but technological changes result from intended shifts in federal or state policies. The authors suggest that current government subsidies to local schools target unintended fiscal strains when they should focus on intended factors. (Author/RW)