Arguing that the decline in the number of community college students transferring to four-year colleges could have a more dramatic effect on baccalaureate-granting institutions than the projected drop in the number of high school graduates, this paper traces the history of the community college's transfer function and discusses the implications of its decline for four-year colleges. The paper first discusses three factors which, since 1950, have weakened transfer education: efforts to expand access to postsecondary education and the admission of students without the interest or ability to complete baccalaureate programs; the growing number of continuing education students pursuing personal interests rather than degree goals; and the growing curricular emphasis on vocational programs. The impact of these trends on transfer programs is then examined in terms of declining enrollments, undermined teacher morale, and the increased difficulty of maintaining college-parallel curricula. After noting the need for studies to achieve a more precise, localized picture of the changing transfer function and the reverse transfer phenomenon, the paper discusses the effects of declines in transferring students on four-year institutions, especially in terms of the need to admit and provide courses for more freshman students. Finally, the implications of these trends and possibilities for postsecondary educational planning are discussed. (JP)