ERIC Number: ED174689
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1979-Apr
Pages: 22
Abstractor: N/A
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: N/A
Assessing the Impact of Evaluation: A Univariate Time Series Technique.
Shapiro, Jonathan
A statistical definition of information utilization for policy making decisions and an evaluation impact test to determine its occurrence are proposed. A univariate time series analysis is used to identify the internal trend for a given policy output variable and to control its effect. Two problems are identified in implementing an evaluation impact test: sample size and the nature of the time series significance test, which is used to make inferences about a series shift but actually measures goodness-of-fit of the forecasts. Other studies, involving utilization rather than quality as the dependent variable, are cited. Two general classes of evaluation characteristics related to utilization are suggested: political or the nature of the organization which will use the evaluation results and the state-of-the-art in evaluation. It is suggested that utilization might be increased if certain elements were included in evaluations, such as: a statement of the premises on which a program is based; specification of the program's process model; and analysis of the effectiveness of program components or alternative approaches. (MH)
Descriptors: Decision Making, Evaluation Methods, Goodness of Fit, Information Utilization, Policy Formation, Political Influences, Program Content, Program Design, Program Effectiveness, Program Evaluation, Research Methodology, Research Reports, Sample Size, Sampling, Statistical Significance, Trend Analysis
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A