Historical data on enrollments in grades one through twelve and high school graduates in the four-county service area of the Gulf Coast Junior College District were collected for 1973 to 1978 and enrollments were projected for the years 1979 to 1989. Once grade and graduation figures were verified for accuracy, a Cohort Survival Method was used to determine the survival rate from one grade to the next. Three survival rates were computed, yielding three-, four-, and five-year averages for each of the four counties (George, Harrison, Jackson, and Stone). For the total four-county district, high school graduates numbered 4,037 in 1977. Peak enrollment of 4,235 is expected in 1978 and graduates are expected to decline to 3,602 by 1989, a decrease of 12%. The two larger counties, Harrison and Jackson, are anticipated to show declines of 13% and 10%, respectively, between 1979 and 1989, and Stone County to show only a very slight increase. George County graduates, however, are expected to increase by 30% between 1978 and 1989. Industrial expansion, increased highway construction, and high per capita earnings contribute to the expected growth in this county. Total population for the district is expected to increase from 272,977 in 1973-74 to 418,300 projected for 1995. (DR)