The prospect of enrollment decline is widely accepted, though educators continue to refer to the possibility with the more delicate term, enrollment stability. The author argues that enrollment declines are likely to be experienced by a high proportion of institutions in a number of states. He discusses several roles that state agencies can play in disseminating enrollment projections for individual institutions, identifies one promising approach to identifying institutions headed for trouble, suggests state policies for easing institutional transition from expansion to decline, and traces some of New York State's experiences during the last several years. (Author/MSE)