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ERIC Number: ED062729
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1971-May
Pages: 171
Abstractor: N/A
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: N/A
Probabilistic School Enrollment Predictions Using Monte Carlo Computer Simulation. Final Report.
Denham, Carolyn H.
A major difficulty in predictions of school enrollments is the failure of the forecaster to express adequately his degree of certainty in his estimates. To alleviate this problem, a method was developed by which a forecaster could prepare probability distributions of enrollment predictions. A basic method of enrollment prediction was chosen and modified to accommodate probabilistic input and output. The method required separate estimates for such variables as migration, retention, and transfer; and it was modified to require three estimates (high, low, and most likely) for each variable. A Monte Carlo computer simulation program was written to combine these various estimates into probability distributions of enrollment prediction. (Appendix A, pages 150-161, may reproduce poorly.) (Author/RA)
Publication Type: N/A
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: N/A
Sponsor: National Center for Educational Research and Development (DHEW/OE), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Boston Coll., Chestnut Hill, MA.
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A