Children often say that possible events are impossible, and only gradually come to see these events as possible. For instance, they often deny that people could do unusual things, like own a pet peacock, or immoral things, like stealing or lying. These possibility denials are surprising. For instance, children have first-hand experience with the…

The import or force of the result of a statistical test has long been portrayed as consistent with deductive reasoning. The simplest form of deductive argument has a first premise with conditional form, such as p[right arrow]q, which means that "if p is true, then q must be true." Given the first premise, one can either affirm or deny…

To expand the use of cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) to longitudinal assessments, this study proposes a bias-corrected three-step estimation approach for latent transition CDMs with covariates by integrating a general CDM and a latent transition model. The proposed method can be used to assess changes in attribute mastery status and attribute…

Evidence of processing costs for unexpected words presented in place of a more expected completion remains elusive in the eye-movement literature. The current study investigated whether such prediction error costs depend on the source of constraint violation provided by the prior context. Participants' eye movements were recorded as they read…

The Miller-Rabin test is a useful probabilistic method for finding large primes. In this paper, we explain the method in detail and give three variations on this test. These variations were originally developed as student projects to supplement a course in error correcting codes and cryptography.

Terence Mills introduces us to Keynsian probability and discusses its implications for teaching probability. The author considers it unlikely that Keynes's theory would replace how we teach probability, but argues that it may make us think more deeply about the use of terms such as chance and probability when used in our lessons.

Although humans often multitask, little is known about how the processing of concurrent tasks is managed. The present study investigated whether adjustments in parallel processing during multitasking are local (task-specific) or global (task-unspecific). In three experiments, participants performed one of three tasks: a primary task or, if this…

Across waves of a panel survey, panel members are repeatedly exposed to the same or very similar survey questions, which might lead to learning effects. We used data from 24 waves of online interviews in a probability-based panel survey to investigate the positive and negative effects of becoming more familiar with the survey questions. We found…

While foster youth miss more school versus their non-foster counterparts, their status as a foster youth is not static, with many of them entering and exiting the foster care system over time. These dynamics of entry and exit can represent particularly crucial transition periods of stability and instability that may differentially influence…

This article introduces an innovative sampling scheme, the median sampling (MS), utilizing individual observations over time to efficiently estimate the mean of a process characterized by a symmetric (non-uniform) probability distribution. The mean estimator based on MS is not only unbiased but also boasts enhanced precision compared to its simple…

Autistic children are less likely to participate in sport than non-autistic children, but we know little about how patterns of participation in team and individual sport change across childhood. Drawing on a nationally representative cohort of Australian children, this study analysed trajectories of participation in team and individual sport…

We consider the problem of bias arising from conditioning on a post-outcome collider. We illustrate this with reference to Elwert and Winship (2014) but we go beyond their study to investigate the extent to which inverse probability weighting might offer solutions. We use linear models to derive expressions for the bias arising in different kinds…

In the present study, we used a modeling approach for measuring task conflict in task switching, assessing the probability of selecting the correct task via multinomial processing tree (MPT) modeling. With this method, task conflict and response conflict can be independently assessed as the probability of selecting the correct task and the…

Suicide, which is defined as an individual's intentionally attempting to end his or her life, is considered an important public health problem. In this study, it was aimed to examine the relationship between cognitive distortions and suicide probability in university students who are in age groups at risk for suicide, and to examine the mediating…

Understanding randomness is essential for modern life, as it underpins decisions under uncertainty. It is also an essential part of both the mathematics and science curricula in schools. Yet, research has shown that many people consider randomness difficult to perceive and argue about, with a number of different and contradictory views on the…