This article concludes the serialization of the Royal Statistical Society's Schools Lecture for 2004, on "Lies and statistics".

This article introduces 2 new sources of bias in probability judgment, discrimination failure and inhibition failure, which are conceptualized as arising from an interaction between error prone memory processes and a support theory like comparison process. Both sources of bias stem from the influence of irrelevant information on participants'…

Objective:: The prevalence of childhood sexual abuse among Latino adult men who have sex with men who live in the US was estimated because a history of childhood sexual abuse increases HIV sexual risk behaviors and other negative health outcomes in adulthood. Method:: The Urban Men's Health Study is a random-digit telephone probability survey of…

Consequential conditionals are defined as "if P then Q" statements, where P is an action, and Q a predicted outcome of this action, which is either desirable or undesirable to the agent. Experiment 1 shows that desirable (viz. undesirable) outcomes invite an inference to the truth (viz. falsity) of their antecedent. Experiment 2 shows that the…

The ability to derive predictions for the outcomes of potential actions from observational data is one of the hallmarks of true causal reasoning. We present four learning experiments with deterministic and probabilistic data showing that people indeed make different predictions from causal models, whose parameters were learned in a purely…

The present study investigated the influence of acoustical characteristics on the implicit learning of statistical regularities (transition probabilities) in sequences of musical timbres. The sequences were constructed in such a way that the acoustical dissimilarities between timbres potentially created segmentations that either supported (S1) or…

This article introduces the concept of a prediction interval in a gambling context.

Rolling dice and tossing coins can still be used to teach probability even if students know (or think they know) what happens in these experiments. This article considers many simple variations of these experiments which are interesting, potentially enjoyable and challenging. Using these variations can cause students (and teachers) to think again…

Pigeons pecked left versus right keys contingent upon the color presented at 1 of those locations. Spatial-response latencies were shorter when the color appeared at the same location as the required response than at the opposite location. This Simon effect occurred when the stimulus on the alternative key was constant, varied from trial to trial,…

Models of attentional control usually describe online shifts in control settings that accommodate changing task demands. The current studies suggest that online control over distractor exclusion--a core component of visual selection--can be accomplished without online shifts in top-down settings. Measurements of target discrimination accuracy…

When forecasters and decision makers describe uncertain events using verbal probability terms, there is a risk of miscommunication because people use different probability phrases and interpret them in different ways. In an effort to facilitate the communication process, the authors investigated various ways of converting the forecasters' verbal…

The traditional approach to expressing cumulants in terms of moments is by expansion of the cumulant generating function which is represented as an embedded power series of the moments. The moments are then obtained in terms of cumulants through successive reverse substitutions. In this note we demonstrate how cumulant-moment relations are…

The author describes a card trick that failed when he tried it with the student chapter at his university. Computations show that the chance of this happening is about 1 in 25.

A result known as the Borel-Cantelli lemma is about probabilities of sequences of events. This article presents an example in which it appears that the hypotheses of the lemma are satisfied but the conclusion is not. The explanation of why not combines elements of probability theory, number theory, and analysis.

Selection theory requires multiple, distinct, simultaneously-actualized states. In cognition, each thought or cognitive state changes the "selection pressure" against which the next is evaluated; they are not simultaneously selected amongst. Creative thought is more a matter of honing in on a vague idea through redescribing successive iterations…