In the course of screening a form of a medical licensing exam for items that function differentially (DIF) between men and women, the authors used the traditional Mantel-Haenszel (MH) statistic for initial screening and a Bayesian method for deeper analysis. For very easy items, the MH statistic unexpectedly often found DIF where there was none.…

This article demonstrates the potential of using hierarchical Bayesian methods to relate models and data in the cognitive sciences. This is done using a worked example that considers an existing model of category representation, the Varying Abstraction Model (VAM), which attempts to infer the representations people use from their behavior in…

In recent years, rapid advancement has taken place in computing technology that allows institutional researchers to efficiently and effectively address data of increasing volume and structural complexity (Luan, 2002). In this chapter, the authors propose a new data analytical technique, Bayesian belief networks (BBN), to add to the toolbox for…

Two field studies form the basis of this article. The major purposes of Study 1 were to examine significant life experiences affecting the cultivation of environmental activists in eastern Taiwan, and to reconstruct the life paths followed by those active people who engaged in effective environmental action. 40 usable autobiographical memories…

Purpose: The development of adaptable and intelligent educational systems is widely considered one of the great challenges in scientific research. Among key elements for building advanced training systems, an important role is played by methodologies chosen for knowledge representation. In this scenario, the introduction of ontology formalism can…

We report a new study testing our proposal that word learning may be best explained as an approximate form of Bayesian inference (Xu & Tenenbaum, in press). Children are capable of learning word meanings across a wide range of communicative contexts. In different contexts, learners may encounter different sampling processes generating the examples…

This commentary reviews five articles that apply Bayesian ideas to psychological development, some with psychology experiments, some with computational modeling, and some with both experiments and modeling. The reviewed work extends the current Bayesian revolution into tasks often studied in children, such as causal learning and word learning, and…

Alternative measures of "confirmation" or "evidential support" have been proposed to express the impact of ascertaining one event on the credibility of another. We report an experiment that compares the adequacy of several such measures as descriptions of confirmation judgment in a probabilistic context.

This technical paper examines some large and unusual movements for data in the 2007 VET (Vocational Education Training) Provider Collection by comparison with 2006. Changes in the patterns of courses undertaken explain most of the divergence between students, enrolments and hours. Appendices include: (1) Derivation of the decomposition; (2) Tables…

An approach to handle partial compliance behavior using principal stratification is presented and applied to a subset of the longitudinal data from the New York City School Choice Scholarship Program, a randomized experiment designed to assess the effects of private schools versus public schools on academic achievement. The initial analysis…

In 23 states, members of the high school class of 2008 were required to pass a state high school exit examination (HSEE) to earn regular high school diplomas. Proponents of these policies claim that they improve student academic achievement, although critics argue that they reduce the quality of instruction without raising academic achievement.…

The capacity of Bayesian methods in estimating complex statistical models is undeniable. Bayesian data analysis is seen as having a range of advantages, such as an intuitive probabilistic interpretation of the parameters of interest, the efficient incorporation of prior information to empirical data analysis, model averaging and model selection.…

This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006) asked individuals to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday events (e.g., cake baking times), and reported that predictions were optimal, employing Bayesian inference based on veridical prior distributions. Although the predictions conformed strikingly to statistics of the world, they reflect…

As item response models gain increased popularity in large-scale educational and measurement testing situations, many studies have been conducted on the development and applications of unidimensional and multidimensional models. Recently, attention has been paid to IRT-based models with an overall ability dimension underlying several ability…