Many educators and researchers are trying to define statistical literacy for the 21st century. Kimura, a Japanese science educator, has suggested that a key task of statistical literacy is the ability to extract qualitative information from quantitative information, and/or to create new information from qualitative and quantitative information.…

The present study tested the assumption of a positive and linear relation between years of schooling and school learning in the Philippine setting. It replicated a 1976 study that had cast doubt on this assumption in the Philippine public educational system. It tested three competing hypotheses for that finding: common sense, the 1976 arrested…

Several regression methods were examined within the framework of weighted structural regression (WSR), comparing their regression weight stability and score estimation accuracy in the presence of outlier contamination. The methods compared are: (1) ordinary least squares; (2) WSR ridge regression; (3) minimum risk regression; (4) minimum risk 2;…

The reliability of four branching algorithms commonly used in computer adaptive testing (CAT) was examined. These algorithms were: (1) maximum likelihood (MLE); (2) Bayesian; (3) modal Bayesian; and (4) crossover. Sixty-eight undergraduate college students were randomly assigned to one of the four conditions using the HyperCard-based CAT program,…

Classical statistical methods and the small enrollments in graduate departments have constrained the Graduate Record Examinations (GRE) Validity Study Service to providing only validities for single predictors. Estimates of the validity of two or more predictors, used jointly, are considered too unreliable because the corresponding prediction…

An empirical review of test items is described as an essential step in criterion-referenced test development. The concept of test items' instructional sensitivity is introduced, and research is briefly reviewed which describes four theoretical contexts in which instructional sensitivity indexes have been observed: criterion-referenced; classical…

This report examines how selection fairness is influenced by the characteristics of a selection instrument in terms of its distribution of item difficulties, level of item discrimination, degree of item bias, and testing strategy. Computer simulation was used in the administration of either a conventional or Bayesian adaptive ability test to a…

A Bayesian prediction strategy is outlined in which antecedent measures are divided into two subgroups. One subgroup is used to discriminate among criterion groups, the second to provide normal linear predictions for each group. Individualized regression constants are subsequently obtained by computing probabilities of group membership from the…

Model checking is a crucial part of any statistical analysis. As educators tie models for testing to cognitive theory of the domains, there is a natural tendency to represent participant proficiencies with latent variables representing the presence or absence of the knowledge, skills, and proficiencies to be tested (Mislevy, Almond, Yan, &…

Topics concerning latent trait theory are addressed: (1) dimensionality of latent space, local independence, and item characteristic curves; (2) models--equations, parameter estimation, testing assumptions, and goodness of fit, (3) applications test developments, item bias, tailored testing and equating; and (4) advantages over classical…

The conventional method of measuring ability--based on items with assumed true parameter values obtained from a pretest--is compared to a Bayesian method that deals with the uncertainties of such items. Data from a 1987 American College Testing Program mathematics test indicate that maximum likelihood/Bayesian techniques underestimate uncertainty.…

The evaluation of the New Century High Schools (NCHS) initiative examined operations and student outcomes in 75 schools from 2002-2003 through 2005-2006. This report, the final in a series of annual evaluation reports, presents data collected over those years, with a focus on school year 2005-2006. The NCHS initiative grew out of a program theory…

In this lead article three emergent problems in the analysis of cross-national survey data are raised in a context of 40 years of research and development in a field where persistent problems have arisen and where scholars across the world have sought solutions. Anomalous results have been found from secondary data analyses that would appear to…

Assessing fit of psychometric models has always been an issue of enormous interest, but there exists no unanimously agreed upon item fit diagnostic for the models. Bayesian networks, frequently used in educational assessments (see, for example, Mislevy, Almond, Yan, & Steinberg, 2001) primarily for learning about students' knowledge and…

Methods for predicting specific college course grades, based on small numbers of observations, were investigated. These methods use collateral information across potentially diverse institutions to obtain refined within-group parameter estimates. One method, referred to as pooled least squares with adjusted intercepts, assumes that slopes and…