Diagnostic classification models (DCMs) are psychometric models that can be used to estimate the presence or absence of psychological traits, or proficiency on fine-grained skills. Critical to the use of any psychometric model in practice, including DCMs, is an evaluation of model fit. Traditionally, DCMs have been estimated with maximum…

Within-cluster variance homogeneity is one of the key assumptions of multilevel models; however, assuming a constant (i.e. equal) within-cluster variance may not be realistic. Moreover, existent within-cluster variance heterogeneity should be regarded as a source of additional information rather than a violation of a model assumption. This study…

Adaptive learning is provided in intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) to enable learners with varying abilities to meet their expected learning outcomes. Despite the personalized learning afforded by ITSes using adaptive learning, learners are still susceptible to shallow learning. Introducing metacognitive tutoring to teach learners how to be aware…

Bayesian approach is becoming increasingly important as it provides many advantages in dealing with complex data. However, there is no well-defined model selection criterion or index in a Bayesian context. To address the challenges, new indices are needed. The goal of this study is to propose new model selection indices and to investigate their…

A wide range of machine-learning-based approaches have been developed in the past decade, increasing our ability to accurately model nonlinear and nonadditive response surfaces. This has improved performance for inferential tasks such as estimating average treatment effects in situations where standard parametric models may not fit the data well.…

Recent controversies have highlighted the importance of local school district governance, but little empirical evidence exists evaluating the quality of district policy makers or policies. In this paper, we take a novel approach to assessing school district decision making. We posit a model of rational decision making under uncertainty that…

Recent controversies have highlighted the importance of local school district governance, but little empirical evidence exists evaluating the quality of district policy makers or policies. In this paper, we take a novel approach to assessing school district decision making. We posit a model of rational decision making under uncertainty that…

Listening to music activates representations of movement and social agents. Why? We test whether causal reasoning plays a role, and find that from childhood, people can intuitively reason about how musical sounds were generated, inferring the events and agents that caused the sounds. In Experiment 1 (N = 120, pre-registered), 6-year-old children…

Single case experimental design (SCED) is an indispensable methodology when evaluating intervention efficacy. Despite long-standing success with using visual analyses to evaluate SCED data, this method has limited utility for conducting meta-analyses. This is critical because meta-analyses should drive practice and policy in behavioral disorders…

Often clinicians are interested in determining whether a subject's measurement falls within a normal range, defined as a range of values of a continuous outcome which contains some proportion (eg, 95%) of measurements from a healthy population. Several studies in the biomedical field have estimated reference ranges based on a meta-analysis of…

It is not always clear how to adjust for control data in causal inference, balancing the goals of reducing bias and variance. We show how, in a setting with repeated experiments, Bayesian hierarchical modeling yields an adaptive procedure that uses the data to determine how much adjustment to perform. The result is a novel analysis with increased…

This dissertation is a collection of three papers. The first is a conceptual paper, followed by two data analysis papers. All three papers examine the connection between structural equation models and regression models, and how one may better learn, research and apply structural equation models when structural equation models are thought of as…

Cognitive diagnostic assessment based on Bayesian networks (BN) is developed in this paper to evaluate student understanding of the physical concept of buoyancy. we propose a three-order granular-hierarchy BN model which accounts for both fine-grained attributes and high-level proficiencies. Conditional independence in the BN structure is tested…

In reinforcement learning (RL) tasks, decision makers learn the values of actions in a context-dependent fashion. Although context dependence has many advantages, it can lead to suboptimal preferences when choice options are extrapolated beyond their original encoding contexts. Here, we tested whether we could manipulate context dependence in RL…

Rare events meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are often underpowered because the outcomes are infrequent. Real-world evidence (RWE) from non-randomized studies may provide valuable complementary evidence about the effects of rare events, and there is growing interest in including such evidence in the decision-making process.…