Beyond Crossroads is a call to action. Within this call, AMATYC has updated its 1995 Crossroads standards, developed a new set of guiding principles, and created a blueprint for implementing these revised principles and standards. The principles guiding Beyond Crossroads are a significant overhaul of their predecessors and are bold statements that…

Academic failure among first-year university students has long fuelled a large number of debates. Many educational psychologists have tried to understand and then explain it. Many statisticians have tried to foresee it. Our research aims to classify, as early in the academic year as possible, students into three groups: the "low-risk"…

Traditionally there has been a theoretical view that raising tuition fees will undermine education equity and social welfare. This study examines the effects of different tuition policies on both these factors. A statistical analysis is made on the theoretical relationship between higher education tuition fees and dropout probability, which leads…

Survey research has played a major role in American social science. An outgrowth of efforts by the United States Department of Agriculture in the 1930s, the Division of Program Surveys (DPS) played an important role in the development of survey methodology. The DPS was headed by the ambitious and entrepreneurial Rensis Likert, populated by young…

The annual US News and World Report (USNWR) Guide to America's Best Colleges is much anticipated by both high-ability high school seniors and college and university administrators. In this paper, we use a decade of Colgate University "Admitted Student Questionnaire" surveys to estimate the influence of changes in a school's USNWR rank on…

The Peer-Assisted Learning (PAL) program at the University of Minnesota has drawn from the best practices of Supplemental Instruction, Peer-Led Team Learning, Structured Learning Assistance, the Emerging Scholars Program, and other successful postsecondary peer cooperative learning models to establish guiding principles for structuring learning…

Commuting or re-location costs could be an in important influence on students' university choices and might even deter some from going to university. The barriers presented by these costs may be high for lower-income students, and students for whom there are cultural incentives to remain in or close to the parental home. If this is the case, then…

Recent developments in cognitive psychology suggest models for knowledge and learning that often fall outside the realm of standard test theory. This paper concerns probability-based inference in terms of such models. The essential idea is to define a space of "student models"--simplified characterizations of students' knowledge, skill,…

When measures are taken on the same individual over time, it is difficult to determine whether observed differences are the result of changes in the person or changes in other facets of the measurement situation (e.g. interpretation of items or use of rating scale). This paper describes a method for disentangling changes in persons from changes in…

The normal curve has long been important in statistics. Most interval variables yield normal or quasi-normal distributions when data are collected from large samples, and the normal "Z" distribution is also used as a test statistic (e.g., to test differences between two means when sample size is large, since "t" approaches…

Four experiments investigated college students' judgments of inter-event contingency. Subjects were asked to judge the effect of a discrete response (tapping a wire) on the occurrence of a brief outcome (a radio's buzzing). Pairings of the possible event-state combinations were presented in a summary table, an unbroken time line, or a broken time…

Using license plates to generate random number pairs, students can calculate an approximate value for pi. The author views this approach as easier to understand than Buffon's needle. (SD)

A test of attitudes toward arguments based on varied levels of probability. (CH)

Bayesian network models offer a large degree of flexibility for modeling dependence among observables (item outcome variables) from the same task that may be dependent. This paper explores four design patterns for modeling locally dependent observations from the same task: (1) No context--Ignore dependence among observables; (2) Compensatory…

Children at many levels enjoy using spinners to explore probabilities and practice predicting, tabulating and graphing outcomes, and observing results. Directions for making spinners, descriptions of several activities, and sample worksheets are provided. (SD)