Many experiments have shown that the human visual system makes extensive use of contextual information for facilitating object search in natural scenes. However, the question of how to formally model contextual influences is still open. On the basis of a Bayesian framework, the authors present an original approach of attentional guidance by global…

Model checking in item response theory (IRT) is an underdeveloped area. There is no universally accepted tool for checking IRT models. The posterior predictive model-checking method is a popular Bayesian model-checking tool because it has intuitive appeal, is simple to apply, has a strong theoretical basis, and can provide graphical or numerical…

Explicit information-seeking actions are needed to evaluate alternative actions in problem-solving tasks. Information-seeking costs are often traded off against the utility of information. We present three experiments that show how subjects adapt to the cost and information structures of environments in a map-navigation task. We found that…

Researchers often have one or more theories or expectations with respect to the outcome of their empirical research. When researchers talk about the expected relations between variables if a certain theory is correct, their statements are often in terms of one or more parameters expected to be larger or smaller than one or more other parameters.…

In this article, the author comments on an article by Dunn, Kadane, and Garrow, "Comparing Harm Done by Mobility and Class Absence: Missing Students and Missing Data." He believes the research reported in that article should serve as a model for future applications of Bayesian methods in important educational research problems. The author lauds…

A Bayesian approach is developed for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with nonignorable missing data. The nonignorable missingness mechanism is specified by a logistic regression model. A hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to produce the joint Bayesian estimates of…

Over the course of instruction, instructors generally collect a great deal of information about each student. Integrating that information intelligently requires models for how a student's proficiency changes over time. Armed with such models, instructors can "filter" the data--more accurately estimate the student's current proficiency…

The 10th International Conference on Educational Data Mining (EDM 2017) is held under the auspices of the International Educational Data Mining Society at the Optics Velley Kingdom Plaza Hotel, Wuhan, Hubei Province, in China. This years conference features two invited talks by: Dr. Jie Tang, Associate Professor with the Department of Computer…

The Secondary School Curriculum and Staffing Survey (SSCSS) has been carried out every four to six years since 1965. The 2007 survey was carried out by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), on behalf of the Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF). The aim of this survey was to create a picture of the secondary…

Probability-based inference in complex networks of interdependent variables is an active topic in statistical research, spurred by such diverse applications as forecasting, pedigree analysis, troubleshooting, and medical diagnosis. This paper concerns the role of Bayesian inference networks for updating student models in intelligent tutoring…

Expected a posteriori has a number of advantages over maximum likelihood estimation or maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation methods. These include ability estimates (thetas) for all response patterns, less regression towards the mean than MAP ability estimates, and a lower average squared error. R. D. Bock and R. J. Mislevy (1982) state that the…

In a variable-length adaptive test with a stopping rule that relied on the asymptotic standard error of measurement of the examinee's estimated true score, M. S. Stocking (1987) discovered that it was sufficient to know the examinee's true score and the number of items administered to predict with some accuracy whether an examinee's true score was…

Hierarchical Bayes procedures for the two-parameter logistic item response model were compared for estimating item parameters. Simulated data sets were analyzed using two different Bayes estimation procedures, the two-stage hierarchical Bayes estimation (HB2) and the marginal Bayesian with known hyperparameters (MB), and marginal maximum…

A Bayesian approach for finding latent classes in data is discussed. The approach uses finite mixture models to describe the underlying structure in the data and demonstrate that the possibility of using full joint probability models raises interesting new prospects for exploratory data analysis. The concepts and methods discussed are illustrated…

A procedure for the sequential optimization of the calibration of an item bank is given. The procedure is based on an empirical Bayes approach to a reformulation of the Rasch model as a model for paired comparisons between the difficulties of test items in which ties are allowed to occur. First, it is indicated how a paired-comparisons design…