A vast body of research finds an association between missteps taken during the teen years (such as motherhood or dropping out of high school) and poor economic and educational outcomes. However, youth who take major missteps as teens often have subsequent success in school or the labor market. This paper attempts to draw lessons from youth who…

This article investigates several methods of identifying individual guessers from their response data. Both the posterior probability method and the likelihood ratio method are based on the two-state mixture modeling approach to response times. The accuracy method is based on response accuracy data. Results from the simulation study showed that…

The increase in burglary crimes, along with the rise in the citizens' worry about burglary crimes, has brought new challenges to the criminal justice systems in developed nations over the last decade. Crime surveys often point to a substantial dissonance between the actual likelihood of burglary and the perceived likelihood of victimization. This…

Risks of life on the street caused by inclement weather, harassment, and assault threaten the unsheltered homeless population. We address some challenges of enumerating the street homeless population by testing a novel capture-recapture (CR) estimation approach that models individuals' intermittent daytime visibility. We tested walking and…

The effectiveness of cooperative learning arrangements is often attributed to the fact that the learners are not only "passive" recipients but also "active" explainers. To test this assumption experimentally explaining and listening were compared with respect to motivation and learning results. Forty first-year college…

Methodological issues of using a class of neural networks called Mixture Density Networks (MDN) for discriminant analysis are discussed. MDN models have the advantage of having a rigorous probabilistic interpretation, and they have proven to be a viable alternative as a classification procedure in discrete domains. Both classification and…

This book contains 40 lessons in problem solving divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 contains several lessons in which solutions are derived through investigation of numerical patterns. Chapter 2 contains lessons in which problem-solving situations are presented in a graphical context. It also includes two lessons in which students construct…

Recently considerable attention has been given in the online information retrieval literature to techniques for producing a weighted output of documents in response to a request. One approach tries to maintain the form of and relationships among requests as they appear in current Boolean logic-based systems, while extending it to permit a weighted…

Criteria for prediction of multinomial responses are examined in terms of estimation bias. Logarithmic penalty and least squares are quite similar in behavior but quite different from maximum probability. The differences ultimately reflect deficiencies in the behavior of the criterion of maximum probability.

The probability integral of the multivariate normal distribution (ND) has received considerable attention since W. F. Sheppard's (1900) and K. Pearson's (1901) seminal work on the bivariate ND. This paper evaluates the formula that represents the "n x n" correlation matrix of the "chi(sub i)" and the standardized multivariate…

The use of a Bayesian approach in evaluating data from clinical trials with many treatment centers and from many studies is discussed. The main distinction between a metaanalysis and an analysis of a multicenter trial is that different studies may have very different designs, while the centers in a multicenter trial usually follow the same…

The probability of experiment-wise error is explored. Overall, the experiment-wise error rate is directly related to the test-wise error rate--the alpha level set by researchers to curtail the existence of a Type I error. A Type I error occurs when a true null hypothesis is rejected in a given study or experiment. The experiment-wise error rate is…

In an attempt to accommodate each of two perspectives (nature versus nurture) in the formulation of a developmental framework, two complementary approaches to developmental theory are presented. First, consideration is given to what is now known about the developmental process in general (thought out in terms of the question "Where is the…

SPIRIT is an Intelligent Tutoring System for tutoring probability theory which has evolved through a continuous process of experimentation and tuning. The system manages a unique flexible tutoring style. On one hand, the system may behave as a tutor who mostly observes the student without interference, intervening only when things are really going…