It is easy to construct pairs of sentences X, Y that lead many people to ascribe higher probability to the conjunction X-and-Y than to the conjuncts X, Y. Whether an error is thereby committed depends on reasoners' interpretation of the expressions "probability" and "and." We report two experiments designed to clarify the normative status of…

A simple, direct condition is formulated for determining the mode(s) of a probability mass function. This condition is then applied to the Poisson and hypergeometric mass functions.

Analysis of binary choice behavior in iterated tasks with immediate feedback reveals robust deviations from maximization that can be described as indications of 3 effects: (a) a payoff variability effect, in which high payoff variability seems to move choice behavior toward random choice; (b) underweighting of rare events, in which alternatives…

Several norms for how people should assess a question's usefulness have been proposed, notably Bayesian diagnosticity, information gain (mutual information), Kullback-Liebler distance, probability gain (error minimization), and impact (absolute change). Several probabilistic models of previous experiments on categorization, covariation assessment,…

For the casino game Keno we determine optimal playing strategies. To decide such optimal strategies, both exact (hypergeometric) and approximate probability calculations are used. The approximate calculations are obtained via the Central Limit Theorem and simulation, and an important lesson about the application of the Central Limit Theorem is…

The prominent cognitive theories of probability judgment were primarily developed to explain cognitive biases rather than to account for the cognitive processes in probability judgment. In this article the authors compare 3 major theories of the processes and representations in probability judgment: the representativeness heuristic, implemented as…

Speeded perceptual classification experiments were conducted to distinguish among the predictions of exemplar-retrieval, decision-boundary, and prototype models. The key manipulation was that across conditions, individual stimuli received either probabilistic or deterministic category feedback. Regardless of the probabilistic feedback, however, an…

Three experiments compared the learning of lower-dimensional family resemblance categories (4 dimensions) with the learning of higher-dimensional ones (8 dimensions). Category-learning models incorporating error-driven learning, hypothesis testing, or limited capacity attention predict that additional dimensions should either increase learning…

Bayesian inference on multinomial probabilities is conducted based on data collected from the game Pass the Pigs[R]. Prior information on these probabilities is readily available from the instruction manual, and is easily incorporated in a Dirichlet prior. Posterior analysis of the scoring probabilities quantifies the discrepancy between empirical…

This article presents two methods of estimating a study's replicability that researchers should consider reporting along with their statistical significant and effect size findings. One method of estimating the replicability of the findings deals with replication in the exact same system. The second method, which may contain subjective probability…

Tobacco use is a major health problem that is estimated to cause 4 million deaths a year worldwide. Nicotine is the main addictive component of tobacco. It acts as an agonist to activate and desensitize nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs). A component of nicotine's addictive power is attributable to actions on the mesolimbic dopaminergic…

We present and discuss three examples of misapplication of the notion of conditional probability. In each example, we present the problem along with a published and/or well-known incorrect--but seemingly plausible--solution. We then give a careful treatment of the correct solution, in large part to show how careful application of basic probability…

The experiments reported in this article used a delayed same/different sentence matching task with concurrent measurement of eye movements to investigate the nature of the plausibility effect. The results clearly show that plausibility effects are not due to low level lexical associative processes, but arise as a consequence of the processing of…

Although previous research has not consistently shown that uncertainty about academic major negatively impacts graduation, commitment is largely believed to affect college students' success. We investigated the impact of institutional commitment, commitment to an educational goal, and commitment to an academic major on the probabilities of…

A large literature has developed in which labor market contracts are used to estimate the value of a statistical life (VSL). Reported estimates of the VSL vary substantially, from less than $100,000 to more than $25 million. This research uses meta-analysis to quantitatively assess the VSL literature. Results from existing studies are pooled to…