Bayesian analysis of an m-group model is considered. A convenient stage III prior is proposed, and cases when the posterior distributions take on a simple form are exhibited. The behavior of various point estimators of the linear parameters of the model are explored in a Monte Carlo study. In the simple model considered, the O'Hagan estimator…

This document describes and discusses a mathematical model of the dynamics of bargaining. The model was designed to show the development of the bargaining process and to provide a means by which a prediction may be made with respect to settlement or stalemate. Allowing for multiple goals of the bargaining parties and changing weightings of those…

The conceptual and theoretical implications of employing different functional models of social change at the community level are outlined in this paper. While no new theoretical or methodological ground is broken, a class of models is recommended that appear infrequently in sociological literature, yet are well suited for representing social…

THIS PAPER IS CONCERNED WITH GRAPHIC PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF GROUPED OBSERVATIONS. IT PRESENTS A METHOD AND SUPPORTING THEORY FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF AN AREA-CONSERVING, MINIMAL LENGTH FREQUENCY POLYGON CORRESPONDING TO A GIVEN HISTOGRAM. TRADITIONALLY, THE CONCEPT OF A FREQUENCY POLYGON CORRESPONDING TO A GIVEN HISTOGRAM HAS REFERRED TO THAT…

AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF 20 ITEMS AND A DISCUSSION OF ITS SIGNIFICANCE WAS PRESENTED TO DESCRIBE CURRENT UTILIZATION OF SUBJECT THEORIES IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF AN EDUCATIONAL THEORY. ALSO, A THEORY MODEL WAS USED TO DEMONSTRATE CONSTRUCTION OF A SCIENTIFIC EDUCATIONAL THEORY. THE THEORY MODEL INCORPORATED SET THEORY (S), INFORMATION THEORY…

The methods, procedures, and results of a sensitivity test on NETMAN, a stochastic digital computer model designed to simulate the information collection and scoring control systems used in tactical warfare training exercises, are described. NETMAN enables its users to obtain information such as personnel requirements, training requirements, and…

This paper discusses the Financial Analysis System (FAS), a software system for financial analysis, display, and modeling of the data found in the COMPUSTAT Annual Industrial, Over-the-Counter and Canadian Company files. The educational utility of FAS is also discussed briefly. (Author)

The general solution to the problem of calculating school enrollments at time (t-1) necessary to meet predetermined graduation or manpower targets at time (t) is derived and examined. The solution, which is obtained by minimizing the squared discrepancy between the given graduations and those predicted by the enrollments, requires the unique…

Competitive bidding has recently received considerable attention in the literature of economics and operations research. Unfortunately, the classic formulation of the problem developed by Friedman and still expounded (Stark and Mayer) can lead to an incorrect estimate of the expected profit for a bidder when uncertainty about the cost of…

Estimating the probability that a proposed bid will win is obviously a central problem in competitive bidding theory. Unfortunately, a method for doing this, which originated with Friedman and which continues to be expounded in the literature, is logically incorrect. This paper points out the deficiency in that formulation. (Author/MLF)

In an attempt to bridge the gap between academic understanding and practical business use, the Box-Jenkins technique of time series analysis for forecasting future events is presented with a minimum of mathematical notation. The method is presented in three stages: a discussion of traditional forecasting techniques, focusing on traditional…

This mathematical model of the educational system calculates information on population groups by sex, race, age, and educational level. The model can be used to answer questions about what would happen to the flows of students and teachers through the formal educational system if these flows are changed at various stages. The report discusses the…

The study is concerned with the problem of determining stimulus discrimination thresholds in non-human vertebrates. In constrast to conventional methods of teaching differentiation of various stimuli by fixed reinforcement schedules, stimulus discrimination threshold determination is related to a teaching system that adjusts to continuously…

A production system simulator has been developed which is capable of simulating a wide variety of realistic manufacturing environments. The simulator is used as an aid in teaching the concepts of designing production control systems and as a research vehicle for investigating various aspects of control theory for production systems. The report…

Operations research methods, such as system modeling, computer simulation, mathematical programing, and the application of the theory of stochastic processes, could have validity in the field of planning in the public sector. In this volume the use of these methods in the areas of local government, urban planning, traffic control, transportation…