In this article, I explore a Bayesian approach to avalanche decision-making. I motivate this perspective by highlighting a version of the base-rate fallacy and show that a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain. I then draw out three theoretical lessons from adopting a Bayesian approach and discuss these lessons…

Educators use various statistical techniques to explain relationships between latent and observable variables. One way to model these relationships is to use Bayesian networks as a scoring model. However, adjusting the conditional probability tables (CPT-parameters) to fit a set of observations is still a challenge when using Bayesian networks. A…

Despite accumulated evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of flipped language classrooms in higher education, there is no quantitative examination of the extant empirical studies to draw a general conclusion. Based on Bayesian methodologies and 26 effect sizes, this study quantitatively examines empirical studies that investigated flipped…

The evaluation of learning in mathematics is a worldwide problem, therefore, new methods are required to assess the understanding of mathematical concepts. In this paper, we propose to use the Item Response Theory to analyze the understanding level of undergraduate students about the real function mathematical concept. The Bayesian approach was…

The present study compares the fit of two- and three-parameter logistic (2PL and 3PL) models of item response theory in the performance of preschool children on the Raven's Colored Progressive Matrices. The test of Raven is widely used for evaluating nonverbal intelligence of factor g. Studies comparing models with real data are scarce on the…

In educational assessments and achievement tests, test developers and administrators commonly assume that test-takers attempt all test items with full effort and leave no blank responses with unplanned missing values. However, aberrant response behavior--such as performance decline, dropping out beyond a certain point, and skipping certain items…

This study investigated dimensionality of Binary Response Items through a non-parametric technique of Item Response Theory measurement framework. The study used causal comparative research type of nonexperimental design. The sample consisted of 5,076 public senior secondary school examinees (SSS3) between the age of 14-16 years from 45 schools,…

Oral reading fluency (ORF), used by teachers and school districts across the country to screen and progress monitor at-risk readers, has been documented as a good indicator of reading comprehension and overall reading competence. In traditional ORF administration, students are given one minute to read a grade-level passage, after which the…

Oral reading fluency (ORF), used by teachers and school districts across the country to screen and progress monitor at-risk readers, has been documented as a good indicator of reading comprehension and overall reading competence. In traditional ORF administration, students are given one minute to read a grade-level passage, after which the…

This study is an extension of an experiment where the reliability of children's environment was manipulated before children completed the Marshmallow Task (Cognition, 2013, Vol. 126, pp. 109-114). In that experiment, Kidd, Palmeri, and Aslin found a significant difference in waiting time between two conditions in which the experimenter…

Bayesian and classical statistical approaches are based on different types of logical principles. In order to avoid mistaken inferences and misguided interpretations, the practitioner must respect the inference rules embedded into each statistical method. Ignoring these principles leads to the paradoxical conclusions that the hypothesis…

I study the impact of novel game manipulations on user engagement using principled computational methods. Maximizing user engagement is important because it results in more profitable games in the commercial arena and better learning outcomes in the educational arena. It is then perhaps unsurprising that the study of user engagement is well…

Promoting self-determination is essential to effective transition services and supports. The Goal Setting Challenge App (GSC App) was developed to deliver self-determination instruction via technology, building on the evidence-based Self-Determined Learning Model of Instruction (SDLMI). This article presents data on goal attainment outcomes for…

A longstanding concern about admissions to higher education is the underprediction of female academic performance by admission test scores. One explanation for these findings is selection system bias, that is, not all relevant KSAOs that are related to academic performance and gender are included in the prediction model. One solution to this…

Algorithms for approximate Bayesian inference, such as those based on sampling (i.e., Monte Carlo methods), provide a natural source of models of how people may deal with uncertainty with limited cognitive resources. Here, we consider the idea that individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) may be usefully modeled in terms of the…