In order to meet two key objectives, enrollment managers at colleges and universities make extensive use of single equation probability models. The first objective is to generate sufficient financial resources to educate the students enrolled. The more dependent the institution is on tuition revenues, the more important is this objective. The…

The Maui Hawaii Educational consortium (the Maui School District and Maui Community College) sought scientifically based evidence for the effectiveness of the "Cognitive Tutor (CT) Algebra I Curriculum" to inform adoption decisions. Decision makers were particularly interested in whether the use of the "CT" program affects…

The Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT) is a high-stakes test that public school students must pass to be eligible for graduation from high school. Previous research suggests that high-stakes tests have a differential effect on students by race and ethnicity. This study finds that in one Florida school district African American and…

Items in the North Central Regional Educational Laboratory's (NCREL) School Development Library series are multimedia packages consisting of print, video, audio, and CD-ROM resources designed to support educators in their efforts to improve classroom instruction. This particular set consists of a 40-minute video and a printed booklet focusing on…

Previous research has shown that, unlike novice physicians' performance, diagnostic quality of expert physicians improves when contextual information (the "Enabling Conditions") about a patient is available. The present study was designed to explore these findings further by systematically varying the typicality of enabling conditions…

Studies in psychology and clinical decision making have shown that research subjects and physicians are often overconfident in the accuracy of their judgments. In these studies, groups of 20 first-year and 27 third-year osteopathic medical students at the Ohio University College of Osteopathic Medicine (Athens) were slightly underconfident in…

Hierarchical Bayes procedures were compared for estimating item and ability parameters in item response theory. Simulated data sets from the two-parameter logistic model were analyzed using three different hierarchical Bayes procedures: (1) the joint Bayesian with known hyperparameters (JB1); (2) the joint Bayesian with information hyperpriors…

Consumer Mathematics II is described as a one-year course for students in grades 9-12 who choose not to take an algebra course, but who need to broaden their mathematical understanding and skills. This curriculum guide is designed to be used in conjunction with a planbook and used as a resource in terms of long-range (semester or year) and…

The decision making processes of children in a probabilistic environment were studied within the context of the theory of signal detection (TSD). The relationship between the age of the child and his ability to revise decision criteria was examined, as well as the appropriateness of TSD measures and methodology with children. It was hypothesized…

A study investigated the effectiveness of the Rasch procedure in measuring response appropriateness, especially for the detection of cheating on multiple-choice language tests. The report gives background information on appropriateness measurement and its potential uses, reviews recent research on cheating and its detection, and describes three…

The analysis of fit of data to a measurement model for graded responses is described. The model is an extension of Rasch's dichotomous model to formats which provide more than two levels of response to items. The model contains one parameter for each person and one parameter for each "step" in an item. A dichotomously-scored item…

Problem Solving in Mathematics (PSM), a program of problem-solving lessons for grades 4-9, is designed to be integrated into the regular mathematics curriculum. Although the content objectives of the lessons are similar to those of most textbooks, PSM emphasizes problem-solving skills and a variety of instructional strategies which foster the…

The tests for zero partial association in a multiple contingency table have gained new importance with the introduction of graphical models. It is shown how these may be performed as exact conditional tests, using as test criteria either the ordinary likelihood ratio, the standard x squared statistic, or any other appropriate statistics. A…

Six methods for smoothing double-entry expectancy tables (tables that relate two predictor variables to probability of attaining a selected level of success on a criterion) were compared using data for entering students at 85 colleges and universities. ACT composite scores and self-reported high school grade averages were used to construct…

These worksheets suggest activities through which secondary school students may be introduced to the ideas of simulation. All can be played as games to give students a feel for the situation modeled; most use coins or dice and a few use random digits. Directions are detailed for each of the 17 worksheets, with variations suggested for many. (MMS)