In this paper, I use a nationally representative sample of American high school seniors in 1992 to examine change and stability in the employment patterns of youth as they make the transition from high school to college. Students with weak attachments to the labor force in high school tend to remain unemployed during the first year of college.…

The authors propose a strategy for studying the effects of time-varying instructional treatments on repeatedly observed student achievement. This approach responds to three challenges: (a) The yearly reallocation of students to classrooms and teachers creates a complex structure of dependence among responses; (b) a child's learning outcome under a…

In this issue's "Classroom Notes" section, the following papers are discussed: (1) "Constructing a line segment whose length is equal to the measure of a given angle" (W. Jacob and T. J. Osler); (2) "Generating functions for the powers of Fibonacci sequences" (D. Terrana and H. Chen); (3) "Evaluation of mean and variance integrals without…

A reliable index of lexical diversity (LD) has remained stubbornly elusive for over 60 years. Meanwhile, researchers in fields as varied as "stylistics," "neuropathology," "language acquisition," and even "forensics" continue to use flawed LD indices--often ignorant that their results are questionable and in…

Growing evidence suggests that lesbian, gay, and bisexual adults may be at elevated risk for mental health and substance use disorders, possibly due to anti-gay stigma. Little of this work has examined putative excess morbidity among ethnic/racial minorities resulting from the experience of multiple sources of discrimination. The authors report…

This paper describes a study, now in progress, of new methods for representing the sampling variability of Mantel-Haenszel differential item functioning (DIF) results, based on the system for categorizing the severity of DIF that is now in place at the Educational Testing Service. The methods, which involve a Bayesian elaboration of procedures…

Based on a synthesis of the literature and observations of young children over 2 years, a framework for assessing probabilistic thinking was formulated, refined, and validated. For each of four major constructs incorporated into this framework--sample space, probability of an event, probability comparisons, and conditional probability--four…

A test of statistical significance is a procedure for determining how likely a result is assuming a null hypothesis to be true with randomization and a sample of size n (the given size in the study). Randomization, which refers to random sampling and random assignment, is important because it ensures the independence of observations, but it does…

Induced probabilities have been largely ignored by educational researchers. Simply stated, if a new or random variable is defined in terms of a first random variable, then induced probability is the probability or density of the new random variable that can be found by summation or integration over the appropriate domains of the original random…

Previous work on the effects of dimensionality on parameter estimation was extended from dichotomous models to the polytomous graded response (GR) model. A multidimensional GR model was developed to generate data in one-, two-, and three-dimensions, with two- and three-dimensional conditions varying in their interdimensional associations. Test…

The goal of books in this series is to present work that is on the growing tip of research in cognitive development. The theme of this volume is children's logical and mathematical cognition, a field in which Piaget's influence has been extensive. In the first of the six chapters, Acredolo presents a new theory of the cognitive bases for…

The logit methodology provides a unique way of examining input-output relationships for social systems where the principal output of the analysis is a probability of some action or state. (Author)

Concerns about students' difficulties in statistical reasoning led to a study which explored year 11 (14 to 16 year-olds) students' ideas in this area. The study focussed on sampling variability, probability, descriptive statistics and graphical representations. This paper presents and discusses the ways in which students made sense of sampling…

Weighting and variance estimation are two statistical issues involved in survey data analysis for large-scale assessment programs such as the Higher Education Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Literacy Assessment. Because survey data are always acquired by probability sampling, to draw unbiased or almost unbiased inferences for the…

Two central concepts in probability theory are those of independence and mutually exclusive events. This document is intended to provide suggestions to teachers that can be used to equip students with an intuitive, comprehensive understanding of these basic concepts in probability. The first section of the paper delineates mutually exclusive and…