A Markov model for predicting performance on criterion-referenced tests is presented,. The model is expressed mathematically as a function of transition matrix, a current state vector, and a future state vector. The matrix is defined in terms of conditional probabilities, i.e., the probability of making a transition to a specific future…

Summarizing work which is part of an Army research program on Methodological Issues in the Construction of Criterion Referenced Tests, the focus of this paper is on a Bayesian model, which gives the probability of correctly classifying an examiner as a master or as a nonmaster while taking into consideration the test length and the mastery cut-off…

Compares classical multiple regression with Bayesian m-group regression, including cross-validation of both methods, in a study to predict first-quarter grade point average in various curricula for community colleges students who had completed developmental studies programs. Finds informal counselor prediction the largest contribution to…

With the increased use of computerized adaptive testing, which allows for continuous testing, new concerns about test security have evolved, one being the assurance that items in an item pool are safeguarded from theft. In this paper, the risk of score inflation and procedures to detect test takers using item preknowledge are explored. When test…

The results of a series of simulation studies designed to investigate the influence of guessing and item pool characteristics on the bias, accuracy, and information properties of the trait estimates derived from Owen's Bayesian sequential testing strategy are reported. (RC)

Effects of dimensionality on ability estimation of an adaptive test were examined using generated data in Bayesian computerized adaptive testing (CAT) simulations. Generally, increasing interdimensional difficulty association produced a slight decrease in test length and an increase in accuracy of ability estimation as assessed by root mean square…

Maximum likelihood and Bayesian procedures are presented for item selection and scoring of multidimensional adaptive tests. A demonstration with simulated response data illustrates that multidimensional adaptive testing can provide equal or higher reliabilities with fewer items than are required in one-dimensional adaptive testing. (SLD)

In this article, a new method is presented and implemented for deriving a scale of socioeconomic status (SES) from international survey data using a multilevel Bayesian item response theory (IRT) model. The proposed model incorporates both international anchor items and nation-specific items and is able to (a) produce student family SES scores…

In this article, we formulate a nonlinear structural equation model (SEM) that can accommodate covariates in the measurement equation and nonlinear terms of covariates and exogenous latent variables in the structural equation. The covariates can come from continuous or discrete distributions. A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze the…

Disclosing information, thoughts, and feelings about personal and meaningful topics (experimental disclosure) is purported to have various health and psychological consequences (e.g., J.W. Pennebaker, 1993). Although the results of 2 small meta-analyses (P. G. Frisina, J. C. Borod, & S. J. Lepore, 2004; J. M. Smyth, 1998) suggest that experimental…

What people mean by randomness should be taken into account when teaching statistical inference. This experiment explored subjective beliefs about randomness and probability through two successive tasks. Subjects were asked to categorize 16 familiar items: 8 real items from everyday life experiences, and 8 stochastic items involving a repeatable…

Sophisticated software such as Virtual Learning Environments (VLEs) are rapidly being deployed by universities. Despite widespread use of such systems, experience shows that there is frequently poor pedagogic development, leading primarily to use of VLEs as electronic document repositories rather than as online learning systems in which the…

Five issues relative to the use of different Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) models to identify effective schools and teachers were examined using data from all students in the Dallas (Texas) public schools in grade 3 in 1994 and grade 4 in 1995. OLS models using first- and second-order interactions produced…

From the fall of 1981 through June 1984, more than 850 disabled examinees took special administration of the Graduate Record Examinations (GRE). Grade point averages were obtained on 278 disabled students; 236 had enough complete data to be included in the study. Disabled students earned lower mean GRE scores than their nonhandicapped counterparts…

Comments are made on the review papers presented by six Dutch psychometricians: Ivo Molenaar, Wim van der Linden, Ed Roskam, Arnold Van den Wollenberg, Gideon Mellenbergh, and Dato de Gruijter. Molenaar has embraced a pragmatic viewpoint on Bayesian methods, using both empirical and pure approaches to solve educational research problems. Molenaar…