This paper addresses likely error rates for measuring teacher and school performance in the upper elementary grades using value-added models applied to student test score gain data. Using realistic performance measurement system schemes based on hypothesis testing, we develop error rate formulas based on OLS and Empirical Bayes estimators.…

In sequential mastery testing (SMT), assessment via computer is used to classify examinees into one of two mutually exclusive categories. Unlike paper-and-pencil tests, SMT has the capability to use variable-length stopping rules. One approach to shortening variable-length tests is stochastic curtailment, which halts examination if the probability…

This study tests the extent to which giving credit for African American English (AAE) responses on a General American English sentence imitation test mitigates dialect effects. Forty-eight AAE-speaking second graders completed the Recalling Sentences subtest of the Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals-Third Edition (1995). A Bayesian…

In the last decade, the evolution of educational technologies has forced an extraordinary interest in new methods for delivering learning content to learners. Today, distance education represents an effective way for supporting and sometimes substituting the traditional formative processes, thanks to the technological improvements achieved in the…

We use unique data to examine how college students from low income families form expectations about academic ability and to examine the role that learning about ability and a variety of other factors play in the college drop-out decision. From the standpoint of satisfying a central implication from the theory of drop-out, we find that…

This paper describes and evaluates the use of measurement decision theory (MDT) to classify examinees based on their item response patterns. The model has a simple framework that starts with the conditional probabilities of examinees in each category or mastery state responding correctly to each item. The presented evaluation investigates: (1) the…

In this article, an integrated Bayesian model for differential item functioning (DIF) analysis is proposed. The model is integrated in the sense of modeling the responses along with the DIF analysis. This approach allows DIF detection and explanation in a simultaneous setup. Previous empirical studies and/or subjective beliefs about the item…

Causal considerations must be relevant for those making decisions. Whether to bring an umbrella or leave it at home depends on the causal consequences of these options. However, most current decision theories do not address causal reasoning. Here, the authors propose a causal model theory of choice based on causal Bayes nets. The critical ideas…

The author describes a protocol for classroom experiments for courses that introduce undergraduates to signaling games. Signaling games are conceptually difficult because, when analyzing the game, students are not naturally inclined to think in probabilistic, Bayesian terms. The experimental design explicitly presents the posterior frequencies of…

In order to identify aberrant response-time patterns on educational and psychological tests, it is important to be able to separate the speed at which the test taker operates from the time the items require. A lognormal model for response times with this feature was used to derive a Bayesian procedure for detecting aberrant response times.…

Student modeling is a fundamental concept applicable to a variety of intelligent tutoring systems (ITS). However, there is not a lot of practical guidance on how to construct and train such models. This paper compares two approaches for student modeling, Knowledge Tracing (KT) and Performance Factors Analysis (PFA), by evaluating their predictive…

The OECD Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) and the OECD Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS) constitute two of the largest ongoing international student and teacher surveys presently underway. Data generated from these surveys offer researchers and policy-makers opportunities to identify particular educational…

Since 1988, researchers have monitored the extent and severity of the chronic special education (SE) faculty shortage. The present study sought to add to this knowledge base by (a) gathering data on the supply and demand of leadership personnel in SE since the "2001 Faculty Shortage Study"; (b) combining and comparing these data with other sources…

In the past few years, universities have become much more involved in outcomes assessment. Outside of the classroom analysis of learning outcomes, an investigation is performed into the use of current data mining tools to assess the issue of student retention within the Computer Information Systems (CIS) department. Utilizing both a historical…

A. Redish et al. (2007) proposed a reinforcement learning model of context-dependent learning and extinction in conditioning experiments, using the idea of "state classification" to categorize new observations into states. In the current article, the authors propose an interpretation of this idea in terms of normative statistical inference. They…