Our objective is the estimation of voter transitions between two consecutive parliamentary elections. Usually, such analyses have been based either on individual survey data or on aggregated data. To move beyond these methods and their respective problems, we propose the application of so-called hybrid models, which combine aggregate and…

When given the opportunity, liars will embed their lies into otherwise truthful statements. In what way this embedding affects the quality of lies, however, remains largely unknown. This study investigated whether lies that are embedded into truthful stories are richer in detail and contain higher quality details compared to lies that are part of…

Raven's Standard Progressive Matrices (SPM) test and related matrix-based tests are widely applied measures of cognitive ability. Using Bayesian Item Response Theory (IRT) models, I reanalyzed data of an SPM short form proposed by Myszkowski and Storme (2018) and, at the same time, illustrate the application of these models. Results indicate that…

U.S. national and state population-based estimates of adults living with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are nonexistent due to the lack of existing surveillance systems funded to address this need. Therefore, we estimated national and state prevalence of adults 18-84 years living with ASD using simulation in conjunction with Bayesian hierarchal…

Teacher feedback is the key to online collaborative discussion. To investigate the effects of different forms of teacher feedback intervention on learners' cognitive and emotional interactions in online collaborative discussion, this study collected collaborative discussion text data of online collaborative learners. Based on the framework of…

Developmental surveillance tools are used to closely monitor the early development of infants and young children. This study provides a novel implementation of a multidimensional item response model, using Bayesian hierarchical priors, to construct developmental profiles for a small sample of children (N = 115) with sparse data collected through…

The present study proposes a Bayesian approach for estimating and testing the operation-specific learning model, a variant of the linear logistic test model that allows for the measurement of the learning that occurs during a test as a result of the repeated use of the operations involved in the items. The advantages of using a Bayesian framework…

Conventional approaches for selecting a reference indicator (RI) could lead to misleading results in testing for measurement invariance (MI). Several newer quantitative methods have been available for more rigorous RI selection. However, it is still unknown how well these methods perform in terms of correctly identifying a truly invariant item to…

We developed and tested strategies for using spatial representations to help students understand core probability concepts, including the multiplication rule for computing a joint probability from a marginal and conditional probability, interpreting an odds value as the ratio of two probabilities, and Bayesian inference. The general goal of these…

The health costs of in-person schooling during the pandemic, if any, fall primarily on the families of students, largely due to the fact that students significantly outnumber teachers. Data from North Carolina, Wisconsin, Australia, England, and Israel covering almost 80 million person-days in school help assess the magnitude of the fatality risks…

Structural equation models comprise a large class of popular statistical models, including factor analysis models, certain mixed models, and extensions thereof. Model estimation is complicated by the fact that we typically have multiple interdependent response variables and multiple latent variables (which may also be called random effects or…

The forced-choice (FC) item formats used for noncognitive tests typically develop a set of response options that measure different traits and instruct respondents to make judgments among these options in terms of their preference to control the response biases that are commonly observed in normative tests. Diagnostic classification models (DCMs)…

Predicting student performance is crucial in higher education, as it facilitates course selection and the development of appropriate future study plans. The process of supporting the instructors and supervisors in monitoring students in order to upkeep them and combine training programs to get the best outcomes. It decreases the official warning…

This report aims to showcase the value of implementing a Bayesian framework to analyse and report results from international large-scale surveys and provide guidance to users who want to analyse the data using this approach. The motivation for this report stems from the recognition that Bayesian statistical inference is fast becoming a popular…

A common practical challenge is how to assign ability estimates to all incorrect and all correct response patterns when using item response theory (IRT) models and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) since ability estimates for these types of responses equal -8 or +8. This article uses a simulation study and data from an operational K-12…