Bayes Theorem leads to three indexes of item effectiveness: 1) probability that an examinee knows the content given that the correct response was selected; 2) probability that an examinee does not know that content given that an incorrect response was selected; and 3) probability of making a correct decision about the examinee's knowledge given…

Examines a statistical model in which the users of an online system continually update their estimated probability of success, and quit or continue the search according to the expected utility of each action. The implications for search strategies are discussed. (Author/EM)

A joint Bayesian estimation procedure for estimating parameters in the three-parameter logistic model is developed. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian procedure (1) ensures that the estimates stay in the parameter space and (2) produces better estimates than the joint maximum likelihood procedure. (Author/BS)

A general approach is proposed for modeling the structure of a r x s contingency table and for drawing marginal inferences about all parameters (e.g., interaction effects) in the model. The main approach is relevant whenever rs minus r minus s plus 1 is greater than or equal to 5. Military aptitude test data is used as illustration. (Author/LMO)

A growing number of states are using annual school-level test scores as part of their school accountability systems. This paper highlights an under-appreciated weakness of that approach, the imprecision of school-level test score means, and proposes a method for discerning signal from noise in annual school report cards. Using methods developed in…

In this paper, an attempt has been made to synthesize some of the current thinking in the area of criterion-referenced testing as well as to provide the beginning of an integration of theory and method for such testing. (Editor)

Discusses research traditions in education and in information retrieval and explores the theory of expected information which uses formulas derived from the Fano measure and Bayesian statistics. Demonstrates its application in a study on the effects of concept mapping on the search behavior of tenth-grade biology students. (Author/LRW)

An alternative to the Rasch model is introduced. It characterizes strength of response according to the ratio of ability and difficulty parameters rather than their difference. Joint estimation and marginal estimation models are applied to two test data sets. (SLD)

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

A procedure is introduced for determining the effect of testlet nonequivalence on operating characteristics of a testlet-based computerized mastery test (CMT). The procedure, which involves estimating the CMT decision rule twice with testlet likelihoods treated as equivalent or nonequivalent, is demonstrated with testlet pools from the Architect…

Through Monte Carlo simulation, respective normative and intuitive strategies for covariation assessment and Bayesian inference are compared. Results indicate that better performance in both tasks results from considering alternative hypotheses, although not necessarily using a normative strategy. Conditions under which intuitive strategies may be…

A theoretical framework for mastery testing based on item response theory and Bayesian decision theory is described and illustrated. Implementation depends on the availability of (1) a computerized test delivery system; (2) a pool of pretested items; and (3) a model relating observed test performance to true mastery status. (SLD)

Uses a flexible modeling strategy to examine the roles of measured ability, family characteristics, and proxies for secondary schooling quality as determinants of the decision to enter college. Finds that the link functions and estimated impacts of ability and family characteristics on the probabilities of enrolling in college are not constant…

This paper presents a methodological approach based on Bayesian Networks for modelling the behaviour of the students of a bachelor course in computers in an Open University that deploys distance educational methods. It describes the structure of the model, its application for modelling the behaviour of student groups in the Informatics Course of…