Experimental data on human reasoning in hypothesis-testing tasks is reassessed in light of a Bayesian model of optimal data selection in inductive hypothesis testing. The rational analysis provided by the model suggests that reasoning in such tasks may be rational rather than subject to systematic bias. (SLD)

Presents a hierarchical Bayes approach to modeling parameter heterogeneity in generalized linear models. The approach combines the flexibility of semiparametric latent class models that assume common parameters for each subpopulation and the parsimony of random effects models that assume normal distributions for the regression parameters.…

The Gibbs sampling algorithms presented by M. H. Seltzer (1993) are fully generalized to a broad range of settings in which vectors of random regression parameters in the hierarchical model are assumed multivariate normally or multivariate "t" distributed across groups. The use of a fully Bayesian approach is discussed. (SLD)

We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction--learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect--based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether a causal relationship…

This study applies a Bayesian latent variable analysis to the task of determining rankings of universities in the UK and US, on the basis of a set of quality-related measures. It estimates the degree of uncertainty in the rankings and permits the assessment of statistically significant differences across universities. It also provides a…

Several norms for how people should assess a question's usefulness have been proposed, notably Bayesian diagnosticity, information gain (mutual information), Kullback-Liebler distance, probability gain (error minimization), and impact (absolute change). Several probabilistic models of previous experiments on categorization, covariation assessment,…

The authors identify and provide an integration of 3 criteria for establishing cue-search hierarchies in inferential judgment. Cues can be ranked by information value according to expected information gain (Bayesian criterion), cue-outcome correlation (correlational criterion), or ecological validity (accuracy criterion). All criteria…

The topic of "truncation by death" in randomized experiments arises in many fields, such as medicine, economics and education. Traditional approaches addressing this issue ignore the fact that the outcome after the truncation is neither "censored" nor "missing," but should be treated as being defined on an extended sample space. Using an…

Students are characterized by different learning styles, focusing on different types of information and processing this information in different ways. One of the desirable characteristics of a Web-based education system is that all the students can learn despite their different learning styles. To achieve this goal we have to detect how students…

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of a false assumption regarding the motivation of examinees on test construction. Simulated data were generated using two models of item responses (the three-parameter logistic item response model alone and in combination with Wise's examinee persistence model) and were calibrated using a…

Languages are transmitted from person to person and generation to generation via a process of iterated learning: people learn a language from other people who once learned that language themselves. We analyze the consequences of iterated learning for learning algorithms based on the principles of Bayesian inference, assuming that learners compute…

Educators need accurate assessments of preschool cognitive growth to guide curriculum design, evaluation, and timely modification of their instructional programs. But available tests do not provide content breadth or growth sensitivity over brief intervals. This article details evidence for a multiform, multiscale test criterion-referenced to…

This study analyses the relationship between subjective and objective measures of well-being in selected European countries using the data of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). In the first part of the paper, we develop a random-effect ordered probit model, separately for each country, relating the subjective measure of income…

This paper presents the effects of curriculum changes for course on Mathematics at Faculty of Information Technologies, University "Dzemal Bijedic", Mostar, BIH. Changes were introduced during Fall Semester 2006/7. They are aiming to improve knowledge deliverance and examination process. Effect of changes was measured by comparing actual results…

The procedures required to obtain the approximate posterior standard deviations of the parameters in the three commonly used item response models for dichotomous items are described and used to generate values for some common situations. The results were compared with those obtained from maximum likelihood estimation. It is shown that the use of…