This report presents guidelines for addressing the multiple comparisons problem in impact evaluations in the education area. The problem occurs due to the large number of hypothesis tests that are typically conducted across outcomes and subgroups in these studies, which can lead to spurious statistically significant impact findings. The…

Structural equation models are widely appreciated in behavioral, social, and psychological research to model relations between latent constructs and manifest variables, and to control for measurement errors. Most applications of structural equation models are based on fully observed data that are independently distributed. However, hierarchical…

The remarkable successes of the physical sciences have been built on highly general quantitative laws, which serve as the basis for understanding an enormous variety of specific physical systems. How far is it possible to construct universal principles in the cognitive sciences, in terms of which specific aspects of perception, memory, or decision…

D. von Winterfeldt, N.-K. Chung, R. D. Luce, and Y. Cho (see record 1997-03378-008) provided several tests for consequence monotonicity of choice or judgment, using certainty equivalents of gambles. The authors reaxiomatized consequence monotonicity in a probabilistic framework and reanalyzed von Winterfeldt et al.'s main experiment via a…

In this note, we demonstrate an interesting use of the posterior distributions (and corresponding posterior samples of proficiency) that are yielded by fitting a fully Bayesian test scoring model to a complex assessment. Specifically, we examine the efficacy of the test in combination with the specific passing score that was chosen through expert…

In this article, we study the Monty Hall three doors problem. A fully general solution and several new approaches are presented, including a Bayesian analysis.

Issues of equity and fairness across subgroups of the population (e.g., gender or ethnicity) must be seriously considered in any standardized testing program. For this reason, many testing programs require some means for assessing test characteristics, such as reliability, for subgroups of the population. However, often only small sample sizes are…

This article presents a method for computer-aided tutor evaluation: Bayesian Networks are used for organizing the collected data about tutors and for enabling accurate estimations and predictions about future tutor behavior. The model provides indications about each tutor's strengths and weaknesses, which enables the evaluator to exploit strengths…

This article reviews the concepts and methods of Bayesian statistical analysis, which can offer innovative and powerful solutions to some challenging analytical problems that characterize developmental research. In this article, we demonstrate the utility of Bayesian analysis, explain its unique adeptness in some circumstances, address some…

Classical informal reasoning "fallacies," for example, begging the question or arguing from ignorance, while ubiquitous in everyday argumentation, have been subject to little systematic investigation in cognitive psychology. In this article it is argued that these "fallacies" provide a rich taxonomy of argument forms that can be differentially…

Spatial judgments and actions are often based on multiple cues. The authors review a multitude of phenomena on the integration of spatial cues in diverse species to consider how nearly optimally animals combine the cues. Under the banner of Bayesian perception, cues are sometimes combined and weighted in a near optimal fashion. In other instances…

How children go about learning the general regularities that govern language, as well as keeping track of the exceptions to them, remains one of the challenging open questions in the cognitive science of language. Computational modeling is an important methodology in research aimed at addressing this issue. We must determine appropriate learning…

Response times on items can be used to improve item selection in adaptive testing provided that a probabilistic model for their distribution is available. In this research, the author used a hierarchical modeling framework with separate first-level models for the responses and response times and a second-level model for the distribution of the…

The authors present a reconciliation of 3 distinct ways in which the research literature has defined overconfidence: (a) overestimation of one's actual performance, (b) overplacement of one's performance relative to others, and (c) excessive precision in one's beliefs. Experimental evidence shows that reversals of the first 2 (apparent…

Many of the problems studied in cognitive science are inductive problems, requiring people to evaluate hypotheses in the light of data. The key to solving these problems successfully is having the right inductive biases--assumptions about the world that make it possible to choose between hypotheses that are equally consistent with the observed…