During modern general election cycles, information to forecast the electoral outcome is plentiful. So-called fundamentals like economic growth provide information early in the cycle. Trial-heat polls become informative closer to Election Day. Our model builds on (Linzer, 2013) and is implemented in Stan (Team, 2020). We improve on the estimation…

Weighted least squares (WLS), weighted least squares mean-and-variance-adjusted (WLSMV), unweighted least squares mean-and-variance-adjusted (ULSMV), maximum likelihood (ML), robust maximum likelihood (MLR) and Bayesian estimation methods were compared in mixed item response type data via Monte Carlo simulation. The percentage of polytomous items,…

Severity and centrality are two main kinds of rater effects posing threats to the validity and fairness of performance assessments. Adopting Jin and Wang's (2018) extended facets modeling approach, we separately estimated the magnitude of rater severity and centrality effects in the web-based TestDaF (Test of German as a Foreign Language) writing…

Currently available (classical) testing procedures for the network autocorrelation can only be used for falsifying a precise null hypothesis of no network effect. Classical methods can be neither used for quantifying evidence for the null nor for testing multiple hypotheses simultaneously. This article presents flexible Bayes factor testing…

A recent paper uses Bayes factors to argue a large minority of rigorous, large-scale education RCTs are "uninformative." The definition of "uninformative" depends on the authors' hypothesis choices for calculating Bayes factors. These arguably overadjust for effect size inflation and involve a fixed prior distribution,…

When item scores are ordered categorical, categorical omega can be computed based on the parameter estimates from a factor analysis model using frequentist estimators such as diagonally weighted least squares. When the sample size is relatively small and thresholds are different across items, using diagonally weighted least squares can yield a…

Large-scale surveys such as the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), the Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS), and the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competences (PIAAC) use advanced statistical models to estimate scores of latent traits from multiple observed responses. The comparison of such…

In the coming years, public programs will capture even more and richer data than they do now, including data from web-based tools used by participants in employment services, from tablet-based educational curricula, and from electronic health records for Medicaid beneficiaries. Program evaluators seeking to take full advantage of these data…

This article reviews and compares recently proposed factor analytic and item response theory approaches to the study of invariance across groups. Two methods are described and contrasted. The alignment method considers the groups as a fixed mode of variation, while the random-intercept, random-loading two-level method considers the groups as a…

Bayesian confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) offers an alternative to frequentist CFA based on, for example, maximum likelihood estimation for the assessment of reliability and validity of educational and psychological measures. For increasing sample sizes, however, the applicability of current fit statistics evaluating model fit within Bayesian…

Statistical learning is often taken to lie at the heart of many cognitive tasks, including the acquisition of language. One particular task in which probabilistic models have achieved considerable success is the segmentation of speech into words. However, these models have mostly been tested against English data, and as a result little is known…

Frequentist methods have long dominated data analysis in quantitative second language (L2) research. Recently, however, several empirical fields have begun to embrace alternatives known as Bayesian methods. Using an open-source approach, we provide an applied, nontechnical rationale for Bayesian methods in L2 research. First, we compare the…

Bayesian analysts use informed priors to improve analytic precision and prediction; however, rarely have they applied a mixed methods approach that uses qualitative data to develop these priors. Yet, using qualitatively informed priors can be useful when making predictions in the context of small sample sizes, which is common in school-based…

Despite its importance to structural equation modeling, model evaluation remains underdeveloped in the Bayesian SEM framework. Posterior predictive p-values (PPP) and deviance information criteria (DIC) are now available in popular software for Bayesian model evaluation, but they remain under-utilized. This is largely due to the lack of…

Recent works on Intelligent Tutoring Systems have focused on more complicated knowledge domains, which pose challenges in automated assessment of student performance. In particular, while the system can log every user action and keep track of the student's solution state, it is unable to determine the hidden intermediate steps leading to such…