To compute the probability of having a disease, given a positive test result, is a standard probability problem. The sensitivity and specificity of the test must be given and the prevalence of the disease. We ask how a test-maker might determine the tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity. Adding hypothetical costs for detecting or failing to…

Dynamic factor models (DFMs) have typically been applied to multivariate time series data collected from a single unit of study, such as a single individual or dyad. The goal of DFMs application is to capture dynamics of multivariate systems. When multiple units are available, however, DFMs are not suited to capture variations in dynamics across…

In this paper, we used simulations to compare the performance of classical and Bayesian estimations in logistic regression models using small samples. In the performed simulations, conditions were varied, including the type of relationship between independent and dependent variable values (i.e., unrelated and related values), the type of variable…

Growing interest in fully Bayesian item response models begs the question: To what extent can model parameter posterior draws enhance existing practices? One practice that has traditionally relied on model parameter point estimates but may be improved by using posterior draws is the development of a common metric for two independently calibrated…

We examined whether dispositional optimism relates to change in global quality of life (QOL) as a function of either chronological age or years to impending death. We used a sample of 2,096 deceased postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative clinical trials who were enrolled in the 2005-2010 Extension Study and for whom at least 1…

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

Mixtures of item response theory (IRT) models have been proposed as a technique to explore response patterns in test data related to cognitive strategies, instructional sensitivity, and differential item functioning (DIF). Estimation proves challenging due to difficulties in identification and questions of effect size needed to recover underlying…

Adults can integrate multiple sensory estimates to reduce their uncertainty in perceptual and motor tasks. In recent studies, children did not show this ability until after 8 years. Here we investigated development of the ability to integrate vision with proprioception to localize the hand. We tested 109 4- to 12-year-olds and adults on a simple…

People have strong intuitions about the influence objects exert upon one another when they collide. Because people's judgments appear to deviate from Newtonian mechanics, psychologists have suggested that people depend on a variety of task-specific heuristics. This leaves open the question of how these heuristics could be chosen, and how to…

The regression discontinuity (RD) design (Thistlewaite & Campbell, 1960; Cook, 2008) provides a framework to identify and estimate causal effects from a non-randomized design. Each subject of a RD design is assigned to the treatment (versus assignment to a non-treatment) whenever her/his observed value of the assignment variable equals or…

We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for analyzing multi-site experimental fMRI studies. Our method takes the hierarchical structure of the data (subjects are nested within sites, and there are multiple observations per subject) into account and allows for modeling between-site variation. Using posterior predictive model checking and model…

The neural correlates of "working memory" (WM) in schizophrenia (SZ) have been extensively studied using the multisite fMRI data acquired by the Functional Biomedical Informatics Research Network (fBIRN) consortium. Although univariate and multivariate analysis methods have been variously employed to localize brain responses under differing task…

Individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) increase the ability and tendency to devote greater attentional control to a task--improving performance on a wide range of skills. In addition, recent research on enclothed cognition demonstrates that the situational influence of wearing a white lab coat increases controlled attention, due…

Conventional differential item functioning (DIF) detection methods (e.g., the Mantel-Haenszel test) can be used to detect DIF only across observed groups, such as gender or ethnicity. However, research has found that DIF is not typically fully explained by an observed variable. True sources of DIF may include unobserved, latent variables, such as…

Game-based Learning (GBL) environments make instruction flexible and interactive. Positive experiences depend on personalization. Student modelling has focused on affect. Three methods are used: (1) recognizing the physiological effects of emotion, (2) reasoning about emotion from its origin and (3) an approach combining 1 and 2. These have proven…