One of the most valuable skills in group decision making is the ability to make trustworthy judgments about group performance. It follows from the "inferential model" of social cognition (Pavitt, 1989; Pavitt & Hight, 1986), that there are three types of judgments relevant to the group context: (1) behavioral (what the group did);…

Investigated were the role of mental imagery in children's logical reasoning and individual differences in children's use of imagery while reasoning. Fifth grade students assessed as being high imagers (HIS) and low imagers (LIS) completed conditional syllogisms of various kinds and were asked, after each of their responses, whether an image had…

Analogical reasoning and learning applied to the task of constructing qualitative explanations for physical phenomena are the subjects of this investigation. Two issues are addressed. The first is how analogies are elaborated to sanction new inferences about a novel situation. This issue is adddressed by contextual structure-mapping, a…

The relationship between cognitive psychologists and researchers in artificial intelligence carries substantial benefits for both. An ongoing investigation in causal reasoning in medical problem solving systems illustrates this interaction. This paper traces a dialectic of sorts in which three different types of causal resaoning for medical…

Thirty-eight sixth-grade students participated in a study that examined the relationship of conceptual tempo and performance on several study and reading activities. Results indicate that conceptual tempo may have a relationship to effective studying and reading. Methodology and results are discussed. (Author/JL)

Alphabet Math is an investigation of the order of usage of letters in the alphabet. Children collect individual data then compare and interpret it to make inferences. The inferences are compared to analyses of larger samples. How this is done is described. (MT)

The use of measures of magnitude of effect has been advocated as a way to go beyond statistical tests of significance and to identify effects of a practical size. They have been used in meta-analysis to combine results of different studies. Describes problems associated with measures of magnitude of effect (particularly study size) and…

In the social sciences, evaluating the effectiveness of a program or intervention often leads researchers to draw causal inferences from observational research designs. Bias in estimated causal effects becomes an obvious problem in such settings. This paper presents the Heckman Model as an approach sometimes applied to observational data for the…

Several recent studies have investigated the application of statistical inference procedures to the analysis of differential item functioning (DIF) in test items that are scored on an ordinal scale. Mantel's extension of the Mantel-Haenszel test is a possible hypothesis-testing method for this purpose. The development of descriptive statistics for…

Discussion of evaluation methodology in information retrieval focuses on the average precision over a set of fixed recall values in an effort to evaluate the retrieval effectiveness of a search algorithm. Highlights include a review of traditional evaluation methodology with examples; and a statistical inference methodology called bootstrap.…

Using the split-middle methods of trend estimation, evaluates the accuracy of interpretation of single subject data by comparing raters' visual analysis of behavior change with statistical determination of behavior change. Results indicate visual analysis accuracy was less than chance. Rater and student characteristics largely did not affect the…

College-educated adults (44 aged 18-22, 20 aged 30-49, and 20 aged 61-79) and adults with no college education (15 aged 62-68) were given the task of making deductive inferences in prose passages. There were no differences among college-educated adults, but the oldest college-educated group performed significantly better than those with no…

Two marble-and-ramp experiments investigated whether a simple-to-embedded-rules account can explain changes in children's causal reasoning. Results indicated that the same difference between three- and four-year olds in the prediction experiment appeared in the action experiment, suggesting that the same rules may underlie causal action as well as…

Compared the thinking of kindergartners and sixth-graders as expressed in unassisted retellings of a narrative text. Found no significant age differences in retelling lengths and few significant age differences in the amount of types of thinking. Older children tended to summarize paragraphs and single sentences; young children tended to summarize…

Results from two Monte Carlo studies in item response theory (comparisons of computer item analysis programs and Bayes estimation procedures) are analyzed with inferential methods to illustrate the procedures' strengths. It is recommended that researchers in item response theory use both descriptive and inferential methods to analyze Monte Carlo…