Within each of 170 physicians, patients were randomized to access e-assist, an online program that aimed to increase colorectal cancer screening (CRCS), or control. Compliance was partial: 78.34% of the experimental patients accessed e-assist while no controls were provided the access. Of interest are the average causal effect of assignment to…

Publication selection bias undermines the systematic accumulation of evidence. To assess the extent of this problem, we survey over 68,000 meta-analyses containing over 700,000 effect size estimates from medicine (67,386/597,699), environmental sciences (199/12,707), psychology (605/23,563), and economics (327/91,421). Our results indicate that…

The estimation of RxC ecological inference contingency tables from aggregate data is one of the most salient and challenging problems in the field of quantitative social sciences, with major solutions proposed from both the ecological regression and the mathematical programming frameworks. In recent decades, there has been a drive to find…

As evidence from evaluation and experimental studies continue to influence decision and policymaking, applied researchers and practitioners require tools to derive valid and credible inferences. Over the past several decades, research in causal inference has progressed with the development and application of propensity scores. Since their…

Thinking probabilistically is an essential part of thinking statistically, and the probability learning objectives that this article focuses on are those that are important in the underpinning of statistics and statistical models. Like mathematical statistics, probability can be considered purely from a mathematical viewpoint, but the focus here…

This paper uses actual data on horse racing to illustrate probabilities, odds, and expected values, and offers cautionary remarks about applying textbook formulas to gambling on real-world sporting events.

When scores are used to make decisions about respondents, it is of interest to estimate classification accuracy (CA), the probability of making a correct decision, and classification consistency (CC), the probability of making the same decision across two parallel administrations of the measure. Model-based estimates of CA and CC computed from the…

Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and provide examples and tentative explanations of a number of statistical…

Do people think about genetic inheritance as a deterministic or probabilistic process? Do adults display systematic biases when reasoning about genetic inheritance? Knowing how adults think about genetic inheritance is valuable, both for understanding the developmental endpoint of these concepts and for identifying biases that persist even after…

All students want to talk about ideas that interest them, but often, multilingual learners are not offered high-challenge, high-support opportunities to connect everyday experiences to mathematical ideas. We describe a single class period that connects students' everyday opinions with two-way tables and notions of independence.

Higher education among youth is crucial for India's socio-economic development. Despite policy efforts, challenges persist in retaining students beyond elementary school and improving inclusivity and education quality. Using the UDAYA dataset from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, we examined how unpaid domestic work affects educational outcomes. Findings…

Over four decades of conceptual change studies in education have been based on the assumption that learners come to science classrooms with functionally fixated intuitive ideas. However, it is largely ignored that such pre-instructional conceptions are probabilistic, reflecting some aspects of an idiosyncratic sampling of their experiences and…

This research aims to determine the thinking activity types dominated by a mental process in producing answers characterized by automatic, unconscious, and subjective-empirical processes (system 1) in solving problems so that the default-interventionist interaction occurs. This research novelty is the formulation of the contents and thinking…

First-year seminars (FYS) comprise one of 11 researched interventions in postsecondary education known as High-Impact Practices, but few rigorous studies report significantly high impacts. This study examined a FYS employing propensity score matching to link cases and controls in a quasi-experimental design. One semester later cumulative grade…

In recent years, converging evidence has suggested that prediction plays a role in language comprehension, as it appears to do in information processing in a range of cognitive domains. Much of the evidence for this comes from the N400, a neural index of the processing of meaningful stimuli which has been argued to index the extent to which a word…