Languages are transmitted from person to person and generation to generation via a process of iterated learning: people learn a language from other people who once learned that language themselves. We analyze the consequences of iterated learning for learning algorithms based on the principles of Bayesian inference, assuming that learners compute…

The purpose of this study is to investigate the ways in which Swedish seventh grade students (12 and 13 years old) handle chance encounters. Four groups of students working in pairs participated in the study. In the group discussions, which were tape-recorded and fully transcribed, the students were encouraged to explore strategies for winning a…

In an effort to answer the "Educational Call to Arms", our national public schools have turned to Advanced Placement (AP) courses as the predominate vehicle used to address the lack of academic rigor in our public high schools. Advanced Placement is believed by many to provide students with the rigor and work ethic necessary to…

Cross-validated classification accuracies were compared under assumptions of equal and varying degrees of unequal prior probabilities of group membership for 24 bootstrap and 48 simulated data sets. The data sets varied in sample size, number of predictors, relative group size, and degree of group separation. Total-group hit rates were used to…

A probability distribution was developed for the Andrews-Pregibon (AP) statistic. The statistic, developed by D. F. Andrews and D. Pregibon (1978), identifies multivariate outliers. It is a ratio of the determinant of the data matrix with an observation deleted to the determinant of the entire data matrix. Although the AP statistic has been used…

Classical test theory findings can be derived from the concepts of conditional expectation, conditional independence, and related notions. It is shown that these concepts provide precisely the formalism needed to obtain the classical results with minimal assumptions and with greatest economy in the methods of proof. (RC)

A replication study was conducted to retest the validity of the Neuropsychiatric Hospital Suicide Potential Scale. Fifty four patients who had committed suicide and fifty who had not were the population studied to test, if possible, the limits of prediction the scale can attain by judging the behavior of these patients. (DEP)

After summarizing the Rasmussion Report, the author reviews the probabilistic portion of the report from the perspectives of engineering utility and risk assessment uncertainty. The author shows that the report may represent a significant step forward in the assurance of reactor safety and an imperfect measure of actual reactor risk. (BT)

After a brief review of organization classification, multivariate approaches toward the empirical identification of such classifications are discussed. Ten guidelines for conducting future multivariate classificatory studies are presented, supported by a critique of two published large-scale empirical studies. (Author)

This paper compares the use of multiple pools versus a single pool with respect to test security against large-scale item sharing among some examinees in a computer-based test, under the assumption that a randomized item selection method is used. It characterizes the conditions under which employing multiple pools is better than using a single…

Latent-class item response models with small numbers of latent classes are quite competitive in terms of model fit to corresponding item-response models, at least for one- and two-parameter logistic (1PL and 2PL) models. Provided that care is taken in terms of computational procedures and in terms of use of only limited numbers of latent classes,…

From a decision theoretic viewpoint, a general coefficient (delta) for tests is derived. The coefficient is applied to three kinds of decision situations. The first situation involves a true score estimated by a function of the observed score of a subject on a test (point estimation). Using the squared error loss function and Kelley's formula for…

During the last decade the use of Bayesian statistical method has become quite prevalent in the educational community. Yet, like most statistical techniques, little has been written concerning the application of these methods to the classroom setting. The purpose of this paper is to help correct such a deficiency in the literature by developing a…

Biases in judgment reveal some heuristics of thinking about uncertainty. Three heuristics are discussed. (Author/RH)