Assuming errors of measurement are distributed binomially, this article reviews various procedures for constructing an interval for an individual's true number-correct score; presents two general interval estimation procedures for an individual's true scale score (i.e., normal approximation and endpoints conversion methods); compares various…

Recent developments in cognitive psychology suggest models for knowledge and learning that often fall outside the realm of standard test theory. This paper concerns probability-based inference in terms of such models. The essential idea is to define a space of "student models"--simplified characterizations of students' knowledge, skill,…

When measures are taken on the same individual over time, it is difficult to determine whether observed differences are the result of changes in the person or changes in other facets of the measurement situation (e.g. interpretation of items or use of rating scale). This paper describes a method for disentangling changes in persons from changes in…

The normal curve has long been important in statistics. Most interval variables yield normal or quasi-normal distributions when data are collected from large samples, and the normal "Z" distribution is also used as a test statistic (e.g., to test differences between two means when sample size is large, since "t" approaches…

Four experiments investigated college students' judgments of inter-event contingency. Subjects were asked to judge the effect of a discrete response (tapping a wire) on the occurrence of a brief outcome (a radio's buzzing). Pairings of the possible event-state combinations were presented in a summary table, an unbroken time line, or a broken time…

Using license plates to generate random number pairs, students can calculate an approximate value for pi. The author views this approach as easier to understand than Buffon's needle. (SD)

A test of attitudes toward arguments based on varied levels of probability. (CH)

Children at many levels enjoy using spinners to explore probabilities and practice predicting, tabulating and graphing outcomes, and observing results. Directions for making spinners, descriptions of several activities, and sample worksheets are provided. (SD)

Replication is important to viable scientific inquiry; results that will not replicate or generalize are of very limited value. Statistical significance enables the researcher to reject or not reject the null hypothesis according to the sample results obtained, but statistical significance does not indicate the probability that results will be…

Methods of probability modeling to analyze rater agreement are described, emphasizing their basic similarities and viewing them as variants of a common methodology. Statistical techniques for analyzing agreement data are described to address questions such as how many opinions are required to make a medical diagnosis with necessary accuracy. Kappa…

This booklet resulted from a 1980 visit by the author, a Hungarian mathematics educator, to the Teachers' Center Project at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. Included are activities and problems that make probablility concepts accessible to young children. The topics considered are: two probability games; choosing two beads; matching…

It has often been argued that all techniques of standard setting are arbitrary and likely to yield different results for different techniques or persons. This paper deals with a related but hitherto ignored aspect of standard setting, namely, the possibility that Angoff or Nedelsky judges misspecify the probabilities of the borderline student's…

This study investigated the effects of using two microcomputer games to help children in grades 4 to 6 develop and apply concepts of probability. To achieve the object of the games, a player should choose moves ("captures") so that the probability of recapture by an opponent is minimized. Questions addressed included whether students…

Presents a procedure for estimating the probability of true hypothesis behavior, including a validity test for the resulting estimate. The procedure is applied to data taken from three research reports, and reveals substantial differences between age and treatment groups. Also discusses implications of the procedure for correctly interpreting…

Using conventional mental test theory, item parameters of an aptitude or achievement test vary with each group of examinees, and as such are somewhat limited in their use and interpretation. Within the last 25 years, measurement models have emerged in which item parameters are considered to be invariant. Generically referred to as latent trait…