People report recognizing discourse inferences at rates that approach target acceptance. Brainerd et al. [Brainerd, C. J., Wright, R., Reyna, V. F., & Mojardin, A. H. (2001). "Conjoint recognition and phantom recollection." "Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 27", 307-329] proposed that…

In this comment, it is argued that the modification of mental models theory of conditional inference proposed by P. Barrouillet, C. Gauffroy, and J.-F. Lecas to deal with truth value gaps merely patches up a problem in the theory, rather than accomplishing the fundamental and systematic revision that is necessary. It is argued that P. Barrouillet…

This paper identifies key concepts and issues associated with the reasoning of informal statistical inference. I focus on key ideas of inference that I think all students should learn, including at secondary level as well as tertiary. I argue that a fundamental component of inference is to go beyond the data at hand, and I propose that statistical…

Informal inferential reasoning is a relatively recent concept in the research literature. Several research studies have defined this type of cognitive process in slightly different ways. In this paper, a working definition of informal inferential reasoning based on an analysis of the key aspects of statistical inference, and on research from…

In this reflective paper, we explore students' local and global thinking about informal statistical inference through our observations of 10- to 11-year-olds, challenged to infer the unknown configuration of a virtual die, but able to use the die to generate as much data as they felt necessary. We report how they tended to focus on local changes…

Computer simulations and 2 experiments demonstrate the ultimate sampling dilemma, which constitutes a serious obstacle to inductive inferences in a probabilistic world. Participants were asked to take the role of a manager who is to make purchasing decisions based on positive versus negative feedback about 3 providers in 2 different product…

Research with adults has shown that ambiguous spoken sentences are resolved efficiently, exploiting multiple cues--including referential context--to select the intended meaning. Paradoxically, children appear to be insensitive to referential cues when resolving ambiguous sentences, relying instead on statistical properties intrinsic to the…

The Observation/Inference (OI) Chart is a strategy that can help students learn to make observations and inferences when reading nontraditional texts such as artifacts, paintings or movies. Nontraditional texts can be highly engaging and provide authentic thinking experiences for students, but they can also be difficult to comprehend. Teachers can…

The developmental model of subjective group dynamics hypothesizes that peer exclusion during middle childhood involves inferences about group dynamics. To test the generality of this prediction, children judged, within minimal groups, peers whose behavior was loyal versus disloyal (Study 1: n = 46, mean age = 113 months) or morally acceptable…

This paper offers a practical guide to use null hypotheses significance testing and its alternatives. The focus is on improving the quality of statistical inference in quantitative communication research. More consistent reporting of descriptive statistics, estimates of effect size, confidence intervals around effect sizes, and increasing the…

A basic problem of daily life is determining who owns what. One way that people may solve this problem is by relying on a "first possession" heuristic, according to which the first person who possesses an object is its owner, even if others subsequently possess the object. We investigated preschoolers' use of this heuristic in five experiments. In…

Research syntheses are appealing because they enable decision makers to determine quickly whether policies, programs, and practices will have effects on student achievement and, if so, the magnitudes of the likely effects. Such syntheses should present objective, clear, scientifically accurate, and defensible evidence in terms that educators can…

Tishman argues that directing students to closely examine physical objects is an excellent way to motivate and strengthen thinking. Even simple objects reflect the social and physical contexts in which they were created and can spur deeper observations and questions. Teaching thinking through objects appeals to many different kinds of learners and…

This report examines the differences in impact estimates and standard errors that arise when these are derived using state achievement tests only (as pre-tests and post-tests), study-administered tests only, or some combination of state- and study-administered tests. State tests may yield different evaluation results relative to a test that is…

Computer simulations and animations for developing statistical concepts are often not understood by beginners. Hands-on physical simulations that morph into computer simulations are teaching approaches that can build students' concepts. In this paper we review the literature on visual and verbal cognitive processing and on the efficacy of…