A vast body of research finds an association between missteps taken during the teen years (such as motherhood or dropping out of high school) and poor economic and educational outcomes. However, youth who take major missteps as teens often have subsequent success in school or the labor market. This paper attempts to draw lessons from youth who…

This article investigates several methods of identifying individual guessers from their response data. Both the posterior probability method and the likelihood ratio method are based on the two-state mixture modeling approach to response times. The accuracy method is based on response accuracy data. Results from the simulation study showed that…

The increase in burglary crimes, along with the rise in the citizens' worry about burglary crimes, has brought new challenges to the criminal justice systems in developed nations over the last decade. Crime surveys often point to a substantial dissonance between the actual likelihood of burglary and the perceived likelihood of victimization. This…

Risks of life on the street caused by inclement weather, harassment, and assault threaten the unsheltered homeless population. We address some challenges of enumerating the street homeless population by testing a novel capture-recapture (CR) estimation approach that models individuals' intermittent daytime visibility. We tested walking and…

In Experiment 1, 10 pigeons were exposed to a successive symbolic matching-to-sample procedure in which the sample was generated by the pigeons' own behavior. Each trial began with both response keys illuminated white, one being the "correct" key and the other the "incorrect" key. The pigeons had no way of discriminating which key was correct and…

Consider the series [image omitted] where the value of each a[subscript n] is determined by the flip of a coin: heads on the "n"th toss will mean that a[subscript n] =1 and tails that a[subscript n] = -1. Assuming that the coin is "fair," what is the probability that this "harmonic-like" series converges? After a moment's thought, many people…

We focus on the problem of ignoring statistical independence. A binomial experiment is used to determine whether judges could match, based on looks alone, dogs to their owners. The experimental design introduces dependencies such that the probability of a given judge correctly matching a dog and an owner changes from trial to trial. We show how…

This note considers functions of two variables which are continuous on a possibly unbounded closed region in [vertical bar]R[squared], and the functions of one variable obtained by integrating out the other variable over this region. The question of continuity of these functions is investigated, as are connections with joint density and marginal…

Stock car racing has seen tremendous growth in popularity in recent years. We introduce two datasets containing results from all Winston Cup races between 1975 and 2003, inclusive. Students can use any number of statistical methods and applications of basic probability on the data to answer a wide range of practical questions. Instructors and…

A generally-educated individual should have some insight into how decisions are made in the very wide range of fields that employ statistical and probabilistic reasoning. Also, students of introductory probability and statistics are often best motivated by specific applications rather than by theory and mathematical development, because most…

Under the suppositional account of conditionals, when people think about a conditional assertion, "if p then q," they engage in a mental simulation in which they imagine p holds and evaluate the probability that q holds under this supposition. One implication of this account is that belief in a conditional equates to conditional probability…

This note introduces an interesting random walk on a straight path with cards of random numbers. The method of recurrent relations is used to obtain the convergent probability of the random walk with different initial positions.

In the discourse surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, extreme criticisms of Israel (e.g., Israel is an apartheid state, the Israel Defense Forces deliberately target Palestinian civilians), coupled with extreme policy proposals (e.g., boycott of Israeli academics and institutions, divest from companies doing business with Israel), have…

This paper describes a set of simulations which explore the way different features of lexical organisation affect the probability of finding a pair of associated words in a set of five randomly selected words. The simulation is equivalent to giving Ss a set of five words and asking if they can identify a pair of associated words among them. The…

Low-achieving students in many school districts are retained in a grade in order to allow them to gain the academic or social skills that teachers believe are necessary to succeed academically. This practice is highly controversial, with many researchers claiming that it leads to higher dropout rates although selection issues have complicated…