A simple and effective model for forecasting freshman enrollment during the application period is presented step by step. The model requires minimal and readily available information, uses a simple linear regression analysis on a personal computer, and provides updated monthly forecasts. (MSE)

Outlines the importance of enrollment projections for informed decision making in educational organizations. Discusses births, migration, and holding power as the three major factors that affect school populations. Describes in detail the cohort survival ratio technique, presents a sample calculation, and mentions alternative methods. (11…

Describes how the State University of New York, using large databases and regression techniques, has developed several coordinated, comprehensive efforts to evaluate and project current and future enrollments. One requires decomposition of the student population into mutually exclusive subgroups. The other, superior, approach uses logistic…

The California Postsecondary Education Commission (CPEC) conducts policy research and analysis to support long-range planning and student success. The community college enrollment projection is the first in the "Ready or Not, Here They Come" series that will be developed over the next six months. Community college projections were…

The concept of fuzzy time series is introduced and used to forecast the enrollment of a university. Fuzzy time series, an aspect of fuzzy set theory, forecasts enrollment using a first-order time-invariant model. To evaluate the model, the conventional linear regression technique is applied and the predicted values obtained are compared to the…

Pointing out that "trend-demographic" enrollment projections ignore important economic considerations (supply and demand), the author uses a model of educational adaptation, which focuses on the educational characteristics of the active adult population and the wage of educated relative to uneducated labor, to make projections that are compared…

This paper describes the application of the discrete maximum principle to the problem of the introduction of universal primary education. (Available from Plenum Publishing Corporation, 227 West 17th Street, New York, NY 10011) (Author)

Examines the methodologies, objectives, and assumptions of existing national enrollment projection studies. (Author/MLF)

Community colleges are in a good position to obtain reliable long-term forecasts of future demand. An approach developed at Johnson County Community College in Overland Park, Kansas, has enabled the college to assist other community institutions in their parallel planning efforts. (Author/MLF)

This document consists of a volume of predictions for education, employment, and population trends expected to occur by the year 2000 in the 15 states of the southern region of the United States and supporting tables that appear in the technical appendix. The following are among the predictions concerning population and enrollment trends: (1) the…

This report presents projections of classroom teaching positions in kindergarten through grade 12 for regular day public schools in New York State. The report is organized in three sections, each consisting of three tables. Tables 1-3 display projections of: (1) the classroom teaching force; (2) classroom teacher vacancies; and (3) vacancies to be…

Enrollment projections for Howard Community College (HCC) are made using an age cohort model that assumes that HCC will continue to enroll the same proportion of students in each age group as are represented in the current student population. Projections are made by calculating the ratio of HCC students in each age group to the number of county…

Small community colleges with enrollments between 500 and 2,500 students have traditionally been unable to afford to hire an institutional researcher or to lease sophisticated statistical packages to perform enrollment analyses, though their needs for enrollment projections are the same as those of larger institutions. Fortunately, with a personal…

From historical and projected state population data, records of live births from 1960 to 1979, and school enrollment data for the years 1961 to 1979, projections of the school enrollments in each of Colorado's counties were developed for the years 1980 through 2000. The counties can be divided into three groups: the 22 for which complete…

The mandatory-staggered-attendance plan can significantly increase existing facilities capacity, reduce new facilities capacity requirements, effect substantial capital program economies, offer potential for operating economies, effect fuel-energy savings, and offer both operational and capital busing economies. (Author)