Presents a mathematical model for projecting class cohort sizes for districts and schools via demographic data. The model allows entry of estimates for local preschool data to predict first-grade entrants, which are progressed through the school system. Average retention rates, school apportionments and national demographic projections can be…

Presents two brief policy reports. One assesses the impact of two policies on student course taking: higher cutoff scores and placement tests, and proposed legislation requiring students to pay for remedial courses if taken twice. The second projects community college enrollment using varying assumptions about high school graduation rates and the…

If the world of education had a crystal ball, even its own visionary might feel a bit of uncertainty. Perhaps one of the furthest ideas from the minds of those considering the future of education facilities is that in 50 years, there will be no education facilities. One reason given for this belief is that 50 years worth of technological…

Discusses how to check the accuracy of different enrollment projection methods for different educational systems. (Author)

Crowded students and overworked faculty have contributed to a lack of confidence about the future of Swiss higher education. (Author/PG)

Declining enrollment presents educational planners with a new challenge. The prospects of consolidation and reductions require the use of the most effective technical planning procedures available to facilitate effective decisionmaking. (Author)

This annotated bibliography of 59 books and 92 articles covers two years of Canadian and American literature dealing with declining enrollment. It is a selective list in that the major emphasis has been placed on the implications and repercussions of this trend, although some of the major works dealing with the statistical aspect of the subject…

The cohort survival model for projecting school district enrollments is presented for use in local district short-term planning. The basic model, modifications, and sample worksheets are presented. To assist in the calculations of local enrollment projections, step-by-step procedures frequently refer to the sample worksheets. Local administrators…

This publication presents procedures for estimating future pupil yield from new housing developments which make possible good administrative decisions as to the location and design of school buildings. The growth of suburban metropolitan areas surrounding populous urban areas in the past several decades contributes to complex school building…

A model is presented in this report for the prediction of future enrollment at the Naval Postgraduate School based on the numbers of recruits in the past. This model utilizes the correlation between populations of successive time periods in order to better estimate the future remaining personnel in the system. The number of personnel leaving from…

Enrollment projections are vital to the planning of any educational system where capacity and growth are important elements. As a portion of a study of engineering education in Ontario, this document presents enrollment projections up to academic year 1980-81, that size and number of engineering schools to be needed might be established. Tables…

In this report issues surrounding the continued growth and development of community colleges in the United States are presented and discussed. The early developmental history of community colleges is described along with the established enrollment trend-lines over time. These factors are then used to postulate a large future enrollment. The next…

Declining enrollment almost inevitably means reduction in force--specifically, in the number of teachers. The author of this paper maintains that this process need not be as traumatic as some think. He suggests basing teaching personnel needs on midyear enrollment projections, rather than on first-of-the-year projections, since the number of…

The phenomenon of part-time study in American education is traced from its roots in the 18th Century, and trends are projected for the coming decades. The effect part-time enrollment will have on the survival of two- and four-year institutions of higher education is noted. (MJB)

Microcomputers and available software can be used to display spreadsheet information helpful to facility planners. This article discusses the nature of electronic spreadsheets, presents an applications procedure, and illustrates a practical facilities planning application by using software generally available. (MLF)