Probabilistic risk assessment has been promoted within the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as a means of judging risk to the public and of determining regulatory measures. Interviews with engineers and other technically trained personnel reveal the difficulties created by expectations that this form of assessment should be applied. (TJH)

Discusses Kris N. Kirby's work on signal detection theory and its application to Watson's selection task. Identifies problems with the design and interpretation of Kirby's card-selection experiments. (DR)

Discusses Over and Evans' alternative interpretations to Kris N. Kirby's card-selection tasks and finds empirical difficulties. Cites the potentially important contribution of Over and Evans to understanding of the card-selection task by applying the notion of epistemic utility. (DR)

This commentary praises the clustering technique of data gathering from clients described by Carney (1992). It also cautions that analyzing qualitative data by quantitative means must be done with care, so that a matrix analysis and resulting interpretation of data gathered through the clustering technique, as Carney suggests, is valid and…

The isotonic ordinal probabilistic model (ISOP) is introduced as a common nonparametric theoretical structure for unidimensional models for quantitative, ordinal, and dichotomous variables. Fundamental theorems on dichotomous and polytomous weakly independent ordered systems are derived, and testing at the observed empirical level is discussed.…

Assesses the retrieval effectiveness of automatically constructed interdocument hypertext links in information retrieval (IR). Describes experiments using statistical and probabilistic techniques that were designed to obtain evidence concerning the usefulness of querying and browsing automatically constructed IR hypertexts. Results indicate a…

Describes how bookmakers calculate the betting odds on each of the horses in a race. Explains how the theory of probability is related to oddsmaking. (Author/WRM)

Consists of a collection of observations about the teaching of the first course in elementary probability and statistics offered by many colleges and universities. Highlights the Goldberg Method for solving problems in probability and statistics. (Author/ASK)

Discusses the use of Microsoft Excel software and provides examples of its use in an online statistics course at Golden Gate University in the areas of randomness and probability, sampling distributions, confidence intervals, and regression analysis. (LRW)

Shares experiences of teaching probability from a constructivist perspective. Discusses the role of cognitive conflict, teaching the unit, and evaluation processes. (ASK)

Presents a probability activity addressing students' misconceptions regarding the Law of Large Numbers. Provides students with better conceptual understanding of the Law of Large Numbers. (ASK)

Many evaluation students are still being taught the use of tests of statistical significance without being warned about their limitations. This paper discusses other estimates of treatment effects necessary to interpret between-group differences correctly. Sources to improve evaluation practice are also suggested. (SLD)

A Rasch method is proposed to measure variables of nonadditive conjoint structures, where dichotomous response conditions are evaluated. In this framework, both the number of endorsed items and their latent positions are considered. The four steps of the method are explained and illustrated with simulated person responses. (SLD)

Honors the contribution of Efraim Fischbein to the study and analysis of probabilistic thinking. Summarizes Fischbein's early work, then focuses on the role of intuition in mathematical and scientific thinking; the development of probabilistic thinking; and the influence of instruction on that development. (Author/MM)

Provides background information on genetics and presents a mathematics activity that uses genetics to study probability. (ASK)