The necessity for inferring and predicting in everyday life is discussed. Eight activities, ranging from sixth- to twelfth-grade levels, are suggested. (MK)

Explains how people arrive at personal hazard assessments. Explores why people overestimate some hazards and underestimate others. Examines risk ratings for activities and technologies such as nuclear power, motor vehicles, pesticides, and vaccinations. (MA)

Discusses the postage rate increases in recent years and notes that if the trend continues the rate will reach three dollars an ounce by the year 2017. (GA)

A survey of Pennsylvania secondary schools showed that relatively few (15 percent) schools offered probability and statistics regularly as a complete course and of those which did, the course was elected primarily by seniors. Reasons for the lack of offerings are analyzed. (DT)

Discusses the need for and construction of a language of probability to complement the extant languages of critique and possibility in critical curriculum theory. Actions framed in the language, and the ensuing dialogue, could then be forces in radical reform through a process of infiltration, appropriation, and reconfiguration. (SM)

Presents a problem of triangular tiles that involves counting and probability. Includes instructor guiding questions. (KHR)

Describes an activity in which students investigate patterns and discrete mathematics found in telephone numbers. (YDS)

An Edgeworth approximation for accurate significance probabilities for the Wilcoxon two-sample test is substantially simplified. A method is developed that allows quick calculations of very accurate probabilities. Exact formulas are given for most of the remaining cases, and tables are presented comparing the new simplification to likely…

Presents a probability model of the occurrence of index terms used to derive discrete distributions which are mixtures of Poisson and negative binomial distributions. These distributions give better fits than the simpler Zipf distribution, have the advantage of being more explanatory, and can incorporate a time parameter if necessary. (25…

Demonstrates the use of the Waring distribution as a model for the frequency distribution of scientific productivity. Methods for testing the fit at both ends of the distribution, as well as for estimating the parameters of the distribution and the total number of scientists, are outlined. (16 references) (Author/CLB)

It is shown that Bayesian algorithms are computationally simpler in frequency formats than in the probability formats used in previous research. Analysis of several thousand solutions to Bayesian problems showed that when information was presented in frequency formats, statistically naive participants derived up to 50% of inferences by Bayesian…

Probability terms were scaled by 3 methods as a result of a survey of undergraduate students (n=194): rank order, percentage estimate, and successive interval. Discusses implications for the selection and placement of probability terms on rating scales in the development of assessment instruments. (JPS)

Discusses models for the distribution of words in text and proposes a new model based on clustering that can be used to estimate the probability that a document contains a particular word as well as the number of distinct words in a document. Zipf's law and the Poisson approximation are also discussed. (18 references) (LRW)

A systematic investigation of the Grice modeling scheme for response time (RT) clarifies fundamental notions about RT modeling. The analysis presented can be used to determine what in a certain RT model constitutes a set of empirically testable assumptions and what is merely an arbitrary choice of mathematical language. (SLD)

Discussion of sampling methods used in information science research focuses on Fussler's method for sampling catalog cards and on sampling by length. Highlights include simple random sampling, sampling with probability equal to size without replacement, sampling with replacement, and examples of estimating the number of books on shelves in certain…