Since 2018, institutions of higher education have been aware of the "enrollment cliff" which refers to expected declines in future enrollment. This paper attempts to describe how prepared institutions in Ohio are for this future by looking at trends leading up to the anticipated decline. Using IPEDS data from 2012-2022, we analyze trends…

We study the external validity of instrumental variable estimation. The key assumption we impose for external validity is conditional external unconfoundedness among compliers, which means that the treatment effect and target selection are independent among compliers conditional on covariates. We study this assumption with a case study about the…

Most existing solutions to the current replication crisis in science address only the factors stemming from specific poor research practices. We introduce a novel mechanism that leverages the experts' predictive abilities to analyze the root causes of replication failures. It is backed by the principle that the most accurate predictor is the most…

Recent investigations on how people derive meaning from language have focused on task-dependent shifts between two cognitive systems. The symbolic (amodal) system represents meaning as the statistical relationships between words. The embodied (modal) system represents meaning through neurocognitive simulation of perceptual or sensorimotor systems…

Learning affective state is determinate to online learning. Different affective states are associated with different online learning behaviors. Given the behavioral indicators of different affective states are still to be explored, this study constructed a data-driven online learning affective state detector by analyzing the learning log data of…

Given the rapid adoption of machine learning methods by education researchers, and the growing acknowledgment of their inherent risks, there is an urgent need for tailored methodological guidance on how to improve and evaluate the validity of inferences drawn from these methods. Drawing on an integrative literature review and extending a…

The way we measure values is foundational to their study. This paper explores the empirical findings and theoretical discussions in the literature concerning an essential quality for any measure of values, its validity. We discuss an important debate on validity within the literature concerning the ability of value measures to predict…

This study examines the predictive validity of high school grade point average and ACT® Composite score on first-year college grade point average prior to and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The findings reveal that the predictive power of high school grade point average changed significantly after 2020, suggesting that students…

Understanding the response process used by test takers when responding to multiple-choice questions (MCQs) is particularly important in evaluating the validity of score interpretations. Previous authors have recommended eye-tracking technology as a useful approach for collecting data on the processes test taker's use to respond to test questions.…

One of the challenges of discussing validity arguments for machine scoring of essays centers on the absence of a commonly held definition and theory of good writing. At best, the algorithms attempt to measure select attributes of writing and calibrate them against human ratings with the goal of accurate prediction of scores for new essays.…

Instructional leaders require timely and predictive data to guide post-pandemic systemic changes. We investigated the predictability of an observational instrument, the Rigor Appraisal, and its association with achievement and other school effectiveness measures in a sample of 53 schools in Illinois. We found that increases in the Rigor Appraisal…

This study examines how student performance in English Language Arts (ELA) and Mathematics predicts later college enrollment. The results show a strong and consistent relationship over time: students who score at the highest performance level are more than twice as likely to enroll in college compared with students scoring at the lowest level.…

This review presents the first comprehensive synthesis of available research on selection methods for STEM graduate study admissions. Ten categories of graduate selection methods emerged. Each category was critically appraised against the following evaluative quality principles: predictive validity and reliability, acceptability, procedural…

This article aims to study the performance of machine learning models in forecasting gender based on the students' open education competency perception. Data were collected from a convenience sample of 326 students from 26 countries using the eOpen instrument. The analysis comprises 1) a study of the students' perceptions of knowledge, skills, and…

Classroom teaching is a demanding and arduous profession, requiring teachers to have a suitable personality to succeed and persevere. However, academic institutions usually determine acceptance based solely on cognitive test scores, despite research indicating the added value of personality measures. This study presents the MESILA personality…