This paper presents a comparison of three approaches to the teaching of probability to demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic can be used to teach the calculations of conditional probabilities. Students are typically introduced to the topic of conditional probabilities--especially the ones that involve Bayes' rule--with…

This study reports the results of a study examining how easily students are able to transfer frequency solutions to conditional probability problems to novel situations. University students studied either a problem solved using the traditional Bayes formula format or using a natural frequency (tree diagram) format. In addition, the example problem…

Bayes's theorem is notorious for being a difficult topic to learn and to teach. Problems involving Bayes's theorem (either implicitly or explicitly) generally involve calculations based on two or more given probabilities and their complements. Further, a correct solution depends on students' ability to interpret the problem correctly. Most people…