The 3-year graduation rate is a rarely measured metric in higher education compared to its 4- or 6- year graduation rate counterparts. For the first time in college (FTIC) students to graduate in three years, they must come with certain skills, abilities, plans, supports, or motivations. This project considers two distinct but interrelated ways of…

We explore generalizability and fairness across sociodemographic groups for predicting on-time college graduation using a national dataset of 41,359 college applications. Our features include sociodemographics, institutional graduation rates, academic achievement, standardized test scores, engagement in extracurricular activities, and work…

Many researchers have explored the relationships between the likelihood of graduating from college and demographic and pre-college factors such as gender, race/ethnicity, high school grade point average (GPA), and standardized test scores. However, additional factors such as a student's college major, home address, or use of learning support in…

This study explored the interaction between student characteristics and the online environment in predicting course performance and subsequent college persistence among students in a large urban U.S. university system. Multilevel modeling, propensity score matching, and the KHB decomposition method were used. The most consistent pattern observed…

In an effort to standardize academic risk assessment, the NCAA developed the graduation risk overview (GRO) model. Although this model was designed to assess graduation risk, its ability to predict grade-point average (GPA) remained unknown. Therefore, 134 individual risk assessments were made to determine GRO model effectiveness in the…

Tinto, Astin and countless others have researched the retention and attrition of students from college for more than thirty years. However, the six year graduation rate for all first-time full-time freshmen for the 2002 cohort was 57%. This study sought to determine the retention variables that predicted continued enrollment of entering freshmen…

The second year of college can be as important as the first year but far fewer studies have been conducted on second-year students. About 12% of students leave California State University - Fresno during or after their second year. In this report, we examined second year students to find the differences between those who graduate and those who…

Prediction models using graduation rate as the performance indicator were obtained for community colleges in California, Florida, and Michigan. The results of this study indicated that institutional graduation rate could be predicted effectively from an aggregate of student and institutional characteristics. A performance measure was computed, the…

The study takes advantage of the nontraditional selection process of the Gates Millennium Scholars (GMS) program to test the association between selectivity of 4-year institution attended as well as other noncognitive variables on the college completion rates of a sample of students of color. The results of logistic regression and propensity score…