In machine learning there is considerable interest in techniques which improve planning ability. Initial investigations have identified a wide variety of techniques to address this issue. Progress has been hampered by the utility problem, a basic tradeoff between the benefit of learned knowledge and the cost to locate and apply relevant knowledge.…

The four purposes of this study were: (1) To compare two versions of a tailored testing model similar to one suggested by Kalisch (1974); (2) To identify levels of the variables within the two versions, which produce an efficient tailored testing procedures; (3) To compare, within each version, the results obtained when employing relatively small…

Two tailored testing models, specifying procedures by which the correctness of examinees' responses to a fixed number of test items are predicted by presenting as few items as possible to the examinee, were compared for their efficiency. The models differ in that one requires reconsideration of each prediction whenever additional information is…

The previous theoretical development of the Poisson process as a strong model for the true-score theory of mental tests is discussed, and additional theoretical properties of the model from the standpoint of individual examinees are developed. The paper introduces the Erlang process as a family of test theory models and shows in the context of…

Introduces two data distortion methods (Frequency-Imposed Distortion, Frequency-Imposed Probability Distortion) and uses a Monte Carlo study to compare their performance with that of other distortion methods (Point Distortion, Probability Distortion). Indications that data generated by these two methods produce accurate statistics and protect…

Discusses methods of weighting of descriptors in document search patterns together with the concept of relative indexing and conditions which should be satisfied by descriptor weight. A procedure for modifiying document search patterns based on users' informational needs and opinions is outlined, and examples are given. Sixteen references are…

Differences in the value of unemployment insurance benefits alter the extent of job search activities by current recipients, according to this study, but differences in expected value of future unemployment benefits do not appear to affect the search process of those not currently eligible for payments. (MF)

Research in goal theory has often relied on the general linear model, ignoring some central assumptions of the theoretical framework under investigation. The purpose of the two studies reported here was to illustrate how the Rasch model can supplement traditional statistical analyses when evaluating the effects of goal orientations on persistence.…

Interpreting information regarding health risks, crime statistics, and government polls requires some ability to use and interpret probabilities. Studies have shown that even after training or coursework in probability and statistics, people still have many difficulties solving probability problems. The thesis of this document is that helping…

This document contains three papers from the Methodology Project of the Center for the Study of Evaluation. Methods for characterizing test accuracy are reported in the first two papers. "Bounds on the K Out of N Reliability of a Test, and an Exact Test for Hierarchically Related Items" describes and illustrates how an extension of a…

Multiple matrix sampling of three subscales of the California Psychological Inventory was used to investigate the effects of four variables on error estimates of the mean (EEM) and variance (EEV). The four variables were examinee population size (600, 450, 300, 150, 100, and 75); number of subtests, (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7), hence the number of…

THE THEME OF THIS PROGRAM WAS THE USE OF PROBABILISTIC MODELS AS MEASUREMENT TOOLS FOR EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN IN TEST CONSTRUCTION AND FOR ANALYSIS OF TEST DATA. SOME CENTRAL ISSUES IN THIS FIELD ARE DISCUSSED AND RESOLVED IN THE FIRST FOUR CHAPTERS OF THE REPORT UNDER THE FOLLOWING TITLES--(1) CONTRIBUTIONS TO ITEM SELECTION, (2) CLUSTERING…

The question of whether test factor structure is indicative of the test item hierarchy was examined. Data from 1,000 subjects on two sets of five bivalued Law School Admission Test items, which were analyzed with latent trait methods of Bock and Lieberman and of Christoffersson in Psychometrika, were analyzed with an ordering-theoretic method to…

Demonstrates a statistically valid method allowing students to explore randomization. Described are two examples: counting techniques for a small set of data and simulation for a large sample. (YP)

Describes advances in capture-recapture modeling, including the biologically motivated emphasis on model-based hypothesis testing and the development of models for spatially stratified populations. Discusses the severe problems associated with count statistics reflecting unknown sampling fractions. (67 references) (KR)