New capabilities in "TinkerPlots 2.0" supported the conceptual development of fifth- and sixth-grade students as they pursued several weeks of instruction that emphasized data modeling. The instruction highlighted links between data analysis, chance, and modeling in the context of describing and explaining the distributions of measures that result…

Traditionally there has been a theoretical view that raising tuition fees will undermine education equity and social welfare. This study examines the effects of different tuition policies on both these factors. A statistical analysis is made on the theoretical relationship between higher education tuition fees and dropout probability, which leads…

Bayesian network models offer a large degree of flexibility for modeling dependence among observables (item outcome variables) from the same task that may be dependent. This paper explores four design patterns for modeling locally dependent observations from the same task: (1) No context--Ignore dependence among observables; (2) Compensatory…

Presents a procedure for estimating the probability of true hypothesis behavior, including a validity test for the resulting estimate. The procedure is applied to data taken from three research reports, and reveals substantial differences between age and treatment groups. Also discusses implications of the procedure for correctly interpreting…

Three separate papers are included in this report. The first describes a two-stage procedure for choosing from among several instructional programs the one which maximizes the probability of passing the test. The second gives the exact sample sizes required to determine whether a squared multiple correlation coefficient is above or below a known…

A BOOKLET DESIGNED FOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL STUDENTS TO BE USED INDEPENDENTLY FROM AND IN ADDITION TO THE REGULAR CLASSROOM CURRICULUM IN MATHEMATICS IS PRESENTED. ELEMENTARY USES AND CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS ARE EXAMINED. PERMUTATION, COMBINATION, AND PREDICTABILITY ARE PRESENTED IN THE SECTION ON PROBABILITY. THE MEANING OF…

When analysis of variance is used, statistically significant differences may or may not be of practical significance to educators. A large part of the problem is due to the fact that a "zero difference" null hypothesis can always be rejected statistically if the sample size is large enough. If, however, a method based on the noncentral F…

This paper presents an index of goodness-of-fit for comparing m models over n trials. The index allows for differentiated weighting of the trials as to their importance in the comparison of the models. Several possible weighting schemes are suggested and the conditions on the weights which assure asymptotic normality of the index distribution are…

In this report, the author suggests changes in the treatment of overhead costs by hypothesizing that "the effectiveness of standard costing in planning and controlling overhead costs can be increased through the use of probability theory and associated statistical techniques." To test the hypothesis, the author (1) presents an overview of the…

The development of an index reflecting the probability that the observed correspondence between multiple choice test responses of two examinees was due to chance in the absence of copying was previously reported. The present paper reports the implementation of a statistic requiring less restrictive underlying assumptions but more computation time…

An asymptotic theory is developed for a new time series model introduced in TM 502 289. An algorithm for computing estimates of the parameters of this time series model is given, and it is shown that these estimators are asymptotically efficient in that they have the same asymptotic distribution as the maximum likelihood estimators. (Author/RC)

Develops models to systematically forecast the tendency of an educational administrator in charge of personnel selection processes to shift from one decision strategy to another under generally stable environmental conditions. Urges further research on these processes by educational planners. (JF)

Investigates the relationships between the parameters of the Simon-Yule model and the shapes of three bibliometric distributions: Lotka's Law of Scientific Productivity; Bradford's Law of Bibliometric Scattering; and Zipf's Law of Word Frequency. The results indicate that the probability of a new entry determines the characteristics of all three…