Presents a method of modeling the relevance relationship in information retrieval to answer the question of the theoretical limits of certain statistical methods. Hypergeometric probability distribution is used to construct an abstract model of a database of MEDLINE records, and results of tests of vector retrieval methods are reported. (28…

Differences between traditional linear regression and a Bayesian approach to classification are discussed. Classification consists of assigning subjects to one of several available treatments on the basis of their test scores when the success of each treatment is measured by a different criterion. Formulating this problem as an empirical Bayes…

Despite advances in common factor analysis, a review of 89 studies published in four selected journals between 1963 and 1976 indicated that behavioral scientists preferred principal components analysis, followed by varimax or orthogonal rotation. Resultant row sums of squares of factor matrices from principal component analyses of real data sets…

This document contains summaries of six courses presented at the Second Annual Presessions of the American Educational Research Association: (1) Bayesian statistical analysis, (2) curriculum research and evaluation, (3) design and analysis of comparative experiments in education, (4) educational research management procedures, (5) multivariate…

Included are probability models for various strategies that contestants on the television game show, "Let's-Make-a-Deal," might use when given the option to stick with their original choice of three unopened doors or switch to the unopened door after one of the other two doors has been opened. (JJK)

Presents two statistical topics and examples of their use in natural resource monitoring. The first topic deals with use of correlated observations in calculations of variance estimates for a regional mean, required sample size determination, and confidence intervals. The second topic concerns the use of Bayesian techniques in hypothesis testing.…

SCORIGHT is a very general computer program for scoring tests. It models tests that are made up of dichotomously or polytomously rated items or any kind of combination of the two through the use of a generalized item response theory (IRT) formulation. The items can be presented independently or grouped into clumps of allied items (testlets) or in…

The technical problems involved in obtaining Bayesian model estimates for the regression parameters in m similar groups are studied. The available computer programs, BPREP (BASIC), and BAYREG, both written in FORTRAN, require an amount of computer processing that does not encourage regular use. These programs are analyzed so that the performance…

A large number of seemingly diverse coefficients have been proposed as indices of dependability, or reliability, for domain-referenced and/or mastery tests. In this paper, it is shown that most of these indices are special cases of two generalized indices of agreement: one that is corrected for chance, and one that is not. The special cases of…

The Multi-Attribute Utilities Theory (MAUT), a model for the evaluation of public postsecondary programs, is presented and is applied to a study of WINNERS (Women's Inner-City Educational Resources Service) with an analysis of the effects of the model on the program. The first chapter provides an overview of the MAUT approach, outlining 16 steps…

A Markov model for predicting performance on criterion-referenced tests is presented,. The model is expressed mathematically as a function of transition matrix, a current state vector, and a future state vector. The matrix is defined in terms of conditional probabilities, i.e., the probability of making a transition to a specific future…

This project is concerned with the development and implementation of some new statistical techniques that will facilitate a continuing input of information about the student to the instructional manager so that individualization of instruction can be managed effectively. The source of this informational input is typically a short…

Four researchers at the Educational Testing Service describe what they consider some of the most vexing research problems they face. While these problems are not completely statistical, they all have major statistical components. Following the introduction (section 1), in section 2, "Problems with the Simultaneous Estimation of Many True…

The Graduate Record Examinations (GRE) Validity Study Service (VSS) was developed by the Educational Testing Service at the request of the GRE Board to help graduate departments investigate the validity of their student selection procedures. The GRE VSS reports are aimed primarily at graduate department chairpersons and faculty members--those who…

The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be identified as a specific configuration of one or…