A TECHNIQUE OF PATTERN ANALYSIS WHICH EMPHASIZES THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE EFFECTIVE WAYS OF SCORING A GIVEN SET OF VARIABLES WAS FORMULATED. TO THE ORIGINAL VARIABLES WERE SUCCESSIVELY ADDED TWO, THREE, AND FOUR VARIABLE PATTERNS AND THE INCREASE IN PREDICTIVE EFFICIENCY ASSESSED. RANDOMLY SELECTED HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS WHO HAD PARTICIPATED IN THE…

THIS PAPER DEALS WITH SOME TESTS OF HYPOTHESIS FREQUENTLY ENCOUNTERED IN THE ANALYSIS OF MULTIVARIATE DATA. THE TYPE OF HYPOTHESIS CONSIDERED IS THAT WHICH THE STATISTICIAN CAN ANSWER IN THE NEGATIVE OR AFFIRMATIVE. THE DOOLITTLE METHOD MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO EVALUATE THE DETERMINANT OF A MATRIX OF HIGH ORDER, TO SOLVE A MATRIX EQUATION, OR TO…

THE GUIDANCE MANUAL HAS BEEN ORGANIZED TO PROVIDE A STATISTICAL BASIS FOR ANALYZING (1) THE NONSELECTIVE ADMISSION POLICY, (2) THE PERFORMANCE OF NATIVE, EVERETT JUNIOR COLLEGE STUDENTS WHO TRANSFER TO 4-YEAR COLLEGES, (3) THE PERFORMANCE OF TRANSFER STUDENTS TO THE JUNIOR COLLEGE WHO LATER ENROLL AT A 4-YEAR COLLEGE, (4) THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE…

A Markov model for predicting performance on criterion-referenced tests is presented,. The model is expressed mathematically as a function of transition matrix, a current state vector, and a future state vector. The matrix is defined in terms of conditional probabilities, i.e., the probability of making a transition to a specific future…

The working paper concentrates on the general objective, "How do the agency (Federal) and its policy makers utilize the information conveyed by scientific manpower forecasts?" Section 1 examines reasons for the growth in demand for these forecasts: (1) benefit cost analysis of public projects with long payout periods must rely on forecasts; (2)…

This review is one in a series intended to develop methods which maximize the use of the existing scientific literature as a basis for predicting human performance. It is concerned with sensory performance in target detection, defined in terms of the "probability of detection" of a flash of light. Two conditions of detection are…

The results of the Pennsylvania Educational Quality Assessment program, Phase II, are interpreted. The first section of the manual presents a statement of each of the Ten Goals of Quality Education which served as the basis of the assessment. Also included are the key items on the questionnaires administered to 5th and 11th grade students. The…

This article examines the relationship between grading systems and performance on national board examinations. The study demonstrates that board scores verify traditional grading as an indicator of student performance despite many variables; students who do well with traditional grades should do as well with national boards. (LBH)

Three versions of a probabilistic model adapted from the theory of information retrieval--a binary version, a version using the full value of the data, and a version using principal components--were tested and applied to data available from application forms to predict graduate school performance of library school students. (EM)

Two competing definitions of test fairness and their differing implications are explained and illustrated, and data from a number of published studies on test bias are reanalyzed; the focus is on unfair bias that may exist in tests that are approximately equally valid for both majority and minority groups. (Author/JM)

Statistical analysis of a sample of the 1979 entry cohort to Lancaster University indicates that the likelihood of non-completion is determined by various characteristics including the student's academic ability, gender, marital status, work experience prior to university, school background, and location of home in relation to university.…

In this rejoinder, the authors respond to the insightful commentary of Strohmer and Arm, Chwalisz, and Hilton, Harris, and Rice about the meta-analysis on statistical versus clinical prediction techniques for mental health judgments. The authors address issues including the availability of statistical prediction techniques for real-life psychology…

This paper examines the applicability of net tuition revenue models for a highly selective, elite priced, private research university in the southern U.S. Pricing and aid strategies for this university seem to be driven by intuitive assumptions about the economy, market forces, needs-blind admissions, student satisfaction, net price…

A visual display is introduced that enables one to compare the predictive validities of all possible non-negatively weighted sums of two predictors. This two-predictor validity curve assesses the level of predictability of a criterion from composites of two predictors. Derivations are presented for the general case. For illustrative purposes, the…

A procedure for developing a nomogram that depicts expectancy of success on a criterion from performance on two predictors is presented. Data from 574 medical students attending Michigan State University College of Human Medicine's classes of 1979 through 1984 were used to develop a model for predicting the expectancy of success on Part I of the…