Multiple regression equations predicting first semester grade point average (GPA) from high school percentile rank (HSPR) and Composite score on the American College Test (ACT:C) were examined for five successive fall freshman classes (1965-1969) at the University of Illinois. Slopes were significantly different among the five equations. Further…

The model for educational measurement developed by George Rasch, a Danish psychometrician, is reviewed and its application to occupational educational testing discussed. The Rasch model is an adaptation from the theory of latent trait analysis. According to it, answering an item correctly is a function of the difficulty of the item and the ability…

To assist Pennsylvania school personnel in interpreting the reports resulting from that State's Educational Quality Assessment program, this manual provides information on the goals, dimensions measured, variables measured, and method used. Appendixes provide the school norms for Grade 5 and Grade 11, a Teacher Questionnaire, School Information…

The purpose of this study was to combine knowledge of teacher demographic data with time-series forecasting methods to predict teacher turnover. Moving averages and exponential smoothing were used to forecast discrete time series. The study used data collected from the 22 largest school districts in Iowa, designated as FACT schools. Predictions…

Explores the limitations associated with the expectancy formula approach, using a logical and mathematical analysis. Expectancy tables are predicted on the questionable assumption that achievement follows a straight line growth pattern. The approach is biased in the direction of applying a more stringent underachievement criterion for older,…

The goal of this research was to predict from a recruit's responses to the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) items whether the recruit would pass the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT). The data consisted of the responses (correct/incorrect) of 1,020 Navy recruits to 200 items of the ASVAB together with the scores of these…

This study stems from attempts to develop prediction equations for freshman grade point average for two demographic classifications of students at a southwestern university. Although the particular results are probably of interest only to that university, certain aspects of the study should be of general interest, because, of the 3,237 students…

Verbal intelligence, English-language skills, personality, and attitude scales were used as predictors of academic performance in students at the University of Hong Kong. A series of bivariate, multiple, and canonical correlation analyses were performed. Results indicate that verbal intelligence and attitudes, except study orientation, were not…

Describes advances in capture-recapture modeling, including the biologically motivated emphasis on model-based hypothesis testing and the development of models for spatially stratified populations. Discusses the severe problems associated with count statistics reflecting unknown sampling fractions. (67 references) (KR)

Describes the practice of federal evaluation of research impact through three approaches: retrospective methods; qualitative methods, including peer review; and quantitative methods. Recommended areas for study in federal research impact assessment are suggested, including predictive reliability, comparative studies, time and cost estimates,…

Argues that G. A. Cziko's conclusions about the inadequacy of mainstream educational research result from misunderstandings of statistical method, philosophy of science, and other topics. Perceptual control theory, which he espouses, may contribute for educational research but its potential does not result from shortcomings of mainstream…

In 1990, a study was conducted at Columbia College (CC) to determine whether a predictor variable could be constructed for student nonsuccess in beginning mathematics courses. For the purposes of the study, nonsuccess was defined as earning a grade of D, F, or No Credit either at the time of withdrawal from the course or as a final grade. The…

An objective measure of Erikson's ego-identity construct is being developed. The total scale includes seven relatively independent subscales designed to reflect the residuals (part conflicts) of Erikson's psychosocial stages of development. An initial item pool of 194 items has been reduced to 113 items by means of judgemental and statistical…

A teaching aid appropriate for a beginning course on experimental design is presented. The aid is a numerical example which illustrates some of the theoretical interrelations among three competing design analysis strategies for estimating treatment effects in random assignment designs. The analysis strategies considered are analysis of variance…

Part of the Evaluation of Teaching Project (EOTP), this research report uses statistical analysis to examine: 1) whether students who had an opportunity to learn classroom material differ in posttest achievement from those students who did not have sufficient time to learn, 2) whether the relationships between teacher behaviors and student…